The Pittsburgh Steelers have a huge rest and travel advantage as home favorites over the Indianapolis Colts ahead of their 1 p.m. ET kickoff at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday, Oct. 11.
My early Colts vs. Steelers prediction and NFL picks expect Pittsburgh to capitalize on the scheduling edge and cover the spread while this total goes Over the number in Week 5.
Colts vs Steelers predictions
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Early Colts vs Steelers spread pick: Steelers -2.5
Not only do the Pittsburgh Steelers have the rest advantage, having played on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, but the Indianapolis Colts are also returning from their own London game Sunday without the traditional bye week following.
Pair Pittsburgh's scheduling edge for this home game with a spread below the key number of 3, and my early lean is the Steelers.
The Colts have also been miserable defensively, with the second-most yards per play allowed and the third-lowest pressure percentage, so Pittsburgh QB Aaron Rodgers should have more time behind center after being sacked 13 times through the first four weeks.
Additionally, Rodgers has flashed with 9.1 air yards and a 9.2 aDoT to start the year.
So, with the Colts ranking 24th in defensive DVOA and 23rd in the pass defense metric, I expect Rodgers and the Pittsburgh offense to put enough points on the board to win by a field goal or more Sunday.
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Early Colts vs Steelers total pick: Over 44.5
Pittsburgh isn’t the only offense facing a soft matchup Sunday.
The Steelers are tied for the fourth-highest yards per attempt allowed while surrendering an average of 24.7 points per game over the past three weeks. Even with a tough schedule for the Colts, I expect Indianapolis to find ways to put points on the board.
Additionally, Indy has scored touchdowns on 75% of its red-zone trips to rank sixth in the league, and the Colts can lean on running back Jonathan Taylor because Pittsburgh has also allowed the sixth-highest yards per carry since Week 2.
With both offenses set up for success, this total is going Over the number.
Colts vs Steelers odds
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- Colts vs Steelers spread: Steelers -2.5
- Colts vs Steelers moneyline: Colts 44%, Steelers 56%
- Colts vs Steelers Over/Under: 44.5
How to watch Colts vs Steelers
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Pittsburgh, Pa.
- Venue: Acrisure Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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