Fresh off Week 4 losses, the 2-2 Lions and 1-3 Cardinals meet Sunday, Oct. 11 at 4:25 p.m. ET at State Farm Stadium.
Detroit is a 4.5-point favorite, and my Lions vs. Cardinals predictions target a get-right spot for Detroit.
Read on for more NFL picks for Week 5.
Lions vs Cardinals predictions
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Early Lions vs Cardinals spread pick: Lions -4.5
I've already bet the Detroit Lions -4.5, and they're tradable up to -6. Technically, I'm fading the Arizona Cardinals more than I'm backing Detroit. Arizona continues to get market support despite entering the season with a 3.5-win total, while QB Jacoby Brissett ranks 22nd in adjusted EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com.
Before Week 4, the Cardinals had the worst net yards per play and ranked 21st in early-down EPA per play differential. Yet Arizona's consensus power rating improved from 7.2 points below an average NFL team entering the season to 4.0 points below average after three weeks.
The Lions are 15-3 straight-up and 13-4-1 against the spread as favorites following a loss under head coach Dan Campbell, with a +6.8 spread differential. In other words, Detroit has consistently crushed inferior teams in get-right spots.
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Early Lions vs Cardinals total pick: Under 54.5
This is definitely a lean, but the Under 54.5, down to 53.5, is the only way I'd play the total since I have Detroit beating Arizona 29-20. Blowouts are where Overs go to die, and I expect the Lions to put it on the Cardinals. If Detroit is up big late, it'll likely play more prevent defense and lean more heavily on RB Jahmyr Gibbs.
I'm also fading last week's results, when both teams cashed the Over: Detroit lost to the Carolina Panthers 32-26, while Arizona fell to the New York Giants 36-24. Lastly, the Cardinals have the league's worst offensive explosive-play rate, per Warren Sharp, and the Lions are below average in that metric as well.
Lions vs Cardinals odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Lions vs Cardinals spread: Lions -4.5
- Lions vs Cardinals moneyline: Lions 70% | Cardinals 37%
- Lions vs Cardinals Over/Under: 54.5
How to watch Lions vs Cardinals
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Glendale, Ariz.
- Venue: State Farm Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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