The Week 4 Monday night game should bring plenty of points to the Superdome, as Michael Penix has the Atlanta offense back on the rails and Bijan Robinson cannot be stopped. Tyler Shough and the Saints might throw more than usual after losing running back Travis Etienne. The NFL picks are in!
Here are my Falcons vs. Saints anytime touchdown scorer predictions for Week 4 MNF. Be sure to also check out my Falcons vs. Saints predictions for Oct. 5.
Best Falcons vs Saints anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Drake London |
40% |
 Juwan Johnson |
30% |
| First TD: Bijan Robinson |
22% |
| Long shot: Austin Hooper |
11% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Falcons touchdown pick: Drake London
Drake London is averaging 120 receiving yards per game across his last seven games with Michael Penix under center. In those seven games, he also has six touchdowns. I don’t understand how London’s TD price is 20 points shorter than Chris Olave’s.
The New Orleans defense had three of its four starting linebackers listed as DNPs at practice Friday, along with another second-stringer.
This defense will have to choose between Bijan Robinson and London, and that should give the wide receiver a little less attention in an indoor game that could see both teams score 24+ points. I'd play London to 43%.
Saints touchdown pick: Juwan Johnson
Juwan Johnson caught all eight of his targets last week and scored twice, and he ranks second at the position in targets inside the 20.
Fellow tight end Noah Fant, who also scored twice last week, has been limited in practice this week and could hand Johnson more opportunities.
Travis Etienne, the Saints' best true rusher, is injured, which could boost passing volume. The Falcons rank in the bottom third of the league in touchdowns allowed to tight ends, and Johnson has emerged as the No. 2 option in a passing offense that ranks third in passing yards per game.
Johnson at 3x or better is good to go.
First touchdown scorer pick: Bijan Robinson
Let’s not get cute with the game’s first scorer. Bijan Robinson is on extra rest after piling up over 200 total yards against the Packers on TNF in Week 3. Now he faces a Saints defense with three starting linebackers listed as very questionable in this divisional matchup.
He’s scored the team’s first touchdown in both games the Falcons have found the end zone, and Atlanta has passed just once inside the 20 this season compared to 12 rushes — 11 of them going to Robinson.
He ranks seventh among running backs in red-zone carries despite playing on what was one of the worst offenses in football for two of the first three weeks.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Austin Hooper
Kyle Pitts is not pulling his weight, and Austin Hooper is coming off a Week 3 TD in which he had two targets, one of which came inside the five-yard line.
He doesn’t run many routes, but his role is near the goal line, and he's targeted on 22% of his routes, second-highest on the team.
With the linebacker injuries and the Saints likely selling out to stop Bijan Robinson up close, a simple play-action boot could leave Hooper wide open in the back of the end zone.
It’s a long shot, so I wouldn’t put a full unit on it, but this is my favorite bragging-TD on the board Monday.
Falcons vs Saints touchdown combo
Tyler Shough
Michael Penix Jr.
It’s my MNF double-QB TD combo. I just need one of these to hit on the season to be profitable, and Week 4 has a legit shot.
Tyler Shough’s current TD price is the best +EV score, per THE BLITZ. He is just one week removed from a nine-carry game in which he scored and had two carries from inside the five.
Michael Penix is the more improbable of the two, but he does have two rushing TDs over his 13 starts, and some bad backup New Orleans linebacker play could be enough to get this across the line.
- TD picks: 14-30, +8.75 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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