After two banger prime-time games in Week 4, we close out the fun in what could be a shootout between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints at the Caesars Superdome.
To help with your NFL picks, we turned to our staff to provide their Falcons vs. Saints expert picks for this Oct. 5 matchup.
If you're looking for more action, our complete Falcons vs. Saints predictions have you covered.
Falcons vs Saints expert picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Expert Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jason Logan: Falcons +2.5 |
53% |
 Josh Inglis: Juwan Johnson anytime TD |
30% |
 Joe Osborne: Over 47.5 |
53% |
 Jon Metler: Chris Olave anytime TD |
44% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jason Logan’s expert pick: Falcons +2.5
Price: 53% at Kalshi
Regression is ripe for Tyler Shough, who faces a sneaky-good Atlanta Falcons secondary.
And with the way Atlanta can dominate possession with the run game — vs. a bad New Orleans Saints run stop — NOLA may not get many cracks on offense.
That makes things very one-dimensional for a New Orleans attack already lacking bodies in the run game. Atlanta has also had extra rest to prep, having played last Thursday and now not suiting up until Monday night.
Josh Inglis' expert pick: Juwan Johnson anytime touchdown
Price: 30% at Kalshi
I got this at 33% and have this at 30%. Juwan Johnson got 20% of the targets in a 40+ dropback outing last week, bringing in all eight of his targets and scoring twice.
He has six red-zone targets for three TDs this year and ranks second at the position in targets inside the 20. Travis Etienne is injured, which could boost the passing volume, and the Falcons rank in the bottom third of the league in TDs allowed to tight ends.
Johnson has become the No. 2 pass option in an offense that ranks third in passing yards per game.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Over 47.5
Price: 53% at Kalshi
I’m buying Atlanta’s breakout in Green Bay: thirty-five points, nearly 500 yards, and over 400 combined yards from Bijan Robinson and Drake London, while Michael Penix Jr. settled in nicely after an early interception.
Now comes a Saints defense that allows 27.7 points per game and struggles against the run and on third down. New Orleans' offense has crossed 30 points twice, with those two games clearing 60 combined points.
With Atlanta no longer completely incompetent at QB, 47.5 is too low.
Jon Metler’s expert pick: Chris Olave anytime touchdown
Price: 40% at Kalshi
I'm hitting the button on Chris Olave to score a touchdown against the Falcons, as I price him closer to 48% to find the end zone on MNF.
Olave came inches away from scoring last week and remains heavily involved in the offense, with 36 targets through three weeks. The Falcons are also without their top cornerback, A.J. Terrell Jr., who was placed on IR with a groin injury a couple of weeks ago.
Without Terrell, I don't see a cornerback on the outside who can match up with Olave, giving him a favorable matchup to find the end zone.
And on the more fun side of things, if you've been following our Covers touchdown survivor pool, Olave gave me a red X last week. But you all know my next-day theory with home runs, and I'm applying the same theory to Olave in Week 4.
How to watch Falcons vs Saints
| Location | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date | Monday, Oct. 5, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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