Jets vs Packers Week 6 Picks and Predictions: New York Uses Ground Game to Cover

Through the first half of Week 5, the Green Bay Packers looked on their way to a 4-1 start to the season after going up 20-10. Instead, the offense put up zero points in the second half and allowed the New York Giants to score 17 unanswered — bungling away the game in a 27-22 loss in front of the London crowd.

They will return home this week for a matchup against the New York Jets, who have rattled off two straight wins since last year's second-overall pick Zach Wilson returned from his preseason injury. Things have seemed to turn around on both sides of the ball, with the offense scoring 64 points during that time and the defense allowing just 37.

Will Wilson and his squad keep the momentum rolling or will Green Bay correct last week's mistakes and get a much-needed win? Find out in our NFL betting picks and predictions for Jets vs. Packers.

Jets vs Packers best odds

Jets vs Packers picks and predictions

Being a Packers fan has been a week-to-week rollercoaster for quite some time now. Whether it's the Jordan Love selection in 2020, the ensuing Rodgers drama, his regular headline-generating interviews and podcast appearances, or the front office's cat-and-mouse antics when it comes to the back-to-back MVP's supporting cast — there is seemingly always something for Packers fans to (often reluctantly) chew on.

Last week's performance is no deviation from that formula after Aaron Rodgers and company failed to score in the second half while the defense allowed 17 unanswered points — choking away a 20-10 lead in the organization's first international game. Criticism has been fired everywhere, from Aaron Rodgers' lackluster decision-making and play, as well as Joe Barry's gross misuse of defensive talent via his zone-heavy scheme.

This week they will look to amend those mistakes against a New York Jets team that has been red hot since Zach Wilson made his Week 4 return from his preseason injury. Wilson is still shaking off the cobwebs, going 32-for-57 for one touchdown and a pair of interceptions in those two contests. The Jets have put up 67 points in those two games largely thanks to their ground game, which chipped in four touchdowns last week (with Wilson contributing one of his own).

The defense also played its part, giving up just 37 points in those two wins. It should be noted that they faced Mitchell Trubisky, Kenny Pickett (in his first NFL action), Teddy Bridgewater, and Skylar Thompson (also in his first NFL action) in that span. Nevertheless, results are results and it's not as if the Packers' offense has done much this year to suggest they're much better on that front — averaging just 19.4 points per game thus far.

Almost all of their offensive success has come on the ground, with the Packers ranking third in rush offense DVOA. With the Jets' rush defense ranking just 19th, there is a potential mismatch there to be exploited.

But flipping the script, Green Bay's rush defense ranks a putrid 30th and goes against rookie Breece Hall who ranks sixth among all running backs according to Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) metric and seventh by DVOA.

To that point, there aren't large enough matchup edges in favor of Green Bay to justify Sunday's touchdown-plus spread. Wilson may not be Rodgers, but at the very least New York has more receiving talent (Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, etc.) than Green Bay and is much more willing to push vertically.

And while Green Bay has more defensive talent on paper, that talent gap is meaningless if Joe Barry continues to misuse it in some ego-driven attempt to structure the defense to his liking.

My best bet: Jets +7.5 (-110 at bet365)

Jets vs Packers spread analysis

On top of the aforementioned, you have Green Bay returning from a trip across the pond. Teams making international trips are given the option to have their bye come the week following, but the Packers opted against it in favor of a bye later on in the season. That could certainly come back to bite them given that Sunday marks their only noon home game this year.

An understated angle to this game is that the Packers will be going against Jets head coach Robert Saleh, who was the defensive coordinator of the 49ers from 2017-2020. In 2019 Saleh crafted defensive gameplays that held the Packers to 27 points across their regular season and playoff matchup.

When Saleh came to New York, he brought along former 49ers passing game coordinator Mike Lafleur to be his offensive coordinator, who helped craft offensive gameplays that resulted in 30.4 points on average across the four contests while the two were there. Needless to say: Saleh and Lafleur have had the Packers' number.

Jets vs Packers Over/Under analysis

If both teams lean on the run a good amount (which they should), then Sunday's matchup could see the clock tick away at ease. These two teams haven't been anything to write home about when it comes to converting drives into points on the scoreboard, with the Jets ranking 15th in points per drive and the Packers ranking 21st.

Given Green Bay's deficiency in particular, it's rather interesting that it averages the eighth longest time of possession per drive, further making the Under look like the play for Sunday. And with the total at 45.5, there's certainly plenty of room there.

The game could also see winds that reach as high as 15 miles per hour, which would further push each team towards their ground game.

Jets vs Packers betting trend to know

Breece Hall has averaged 122.3 scrimmage yards in his last three games. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Packers.

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