Jets vs Colts Thursday Night Football Picks and Predictions: New York Keeps Flying?

The Jets enjoyed an upset win last week and enter TNF in Week 9 as heavy NFL betting underdogs again, as they head to Indy to face the Colts. Our picks break down whether another upset — or at least a cover — is coming for New York.

Last Updated: Nov 4, 2021 5:09 PM ET Read Time: 5 min

The Fightin' Mike Whites will look to make it two straight, as the New York Jets fly into Lucas Oil Stadium for a Thursday Night Football date with the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9.

Despite White's heroics in New York's win over the Bengals last week, his team enters TNF as 10.5-point NFL betting underdogs against Indy on a short week. 

Can the Jets pull off an upset for the second straight week? Find out in our free picks and predictions for Jets vs. Colts on November 4.

Jets vs Colts odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Jets' win last week definitely had an impact on this week’s line. The lookahead lines had the Jets as 14.5-point underdogs and after last week’s win, they re-opened at +10.5. The total hit the board at 47 and has been bet down slightly to 46.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Jets vs Colts picks

Picks made on 11/2/2021 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Jets vs Colts game info

Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Date: Thursday, November 4, 2021
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET

Jets at Colts betting preview


Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Key injuries

Jets: Tevin Coleman RB (Out), Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G (Out), Corey Davis WR (Out), Zach Wilson QB (Out), Joe Flacco QB (Out), Jonathan Marshall DT (Out), Jarrod Wilson S (Out).
Colts: Ben Banogu DE (Out), Julie'n Davenport T (Out), Will Fries G (Out), TY Hilton WR (Out), Bopete Keyes CB (Out), Marlon Mack RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 16-5 in the Jets' last 21 games when facing a team with a losing record and 4-1 in the Colts' last five games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Colts.

Jets vs Colts predictions

Yes, the Jets crushed survivor picks everywhere last week with their 34-31 victory over the Bengals as 11.5-point underdogs, and a big shoutout goes to former Western Kentucky Hilltopper Mike White.

The fourth-year man made his first career start and lit up the Bengals, going 37 for 45 for 405 yards with three touchdowns, but he did have a pair of picks. That said, the turnovers weren’t terrible throws, particularly when you consider it was the kid’s first career NFL start.

Meanwhile, the Colts are coming off a devastating defeat last week, falling 34-31 to the Titans in overtime, thanks to a pair of awful interceptions from quarterback Carson Wentz. The loss dropped the Colts to 3-5 for the season, but while Indy may be down, it's certainly not out. The Colts still have an outside shot at the playoffs and maybe even the division now that Derrick Henry is out for the foreseeable future.

Despite the fact that Wentz makes Colts fans hold their breath more often than they would like, he still plays behind a fantastic offensive line, which has been creating great holes for Jonathan Taylor. The sophomore back already has 649 yards and six scores. And wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is having a breakout year, hauling in 45 receptions for 594 yards and four touchdowns.

On defense, the Colts have been the toughest to run against in the NFL ranking 1st in run defense DVOA, allowing 4.0 yards per attempt. But while they have been stout against the run, they have been vulnerable against the pass, ranking 22nd in DVOA.

I don’t love either side in this game a whole lot. Last week aside, the Jets are still bad. The Colts have a sizeable edge in talent and should win and cover, but Wentz is still prone to mistakes at times.

While we have lost some value with the Jets, we’ll still side with the double-digit underdogs who are riding high after last week and should be able to move the ball through the air against a suspect Colts pass defense.

While picking the side in a Jets-Colts matchup may make you a bit queasy, the total might be a bit of a safer play. 

Despite the ugly loss last week, the Colts have scored 30 or more points in three straight games, and each came against mediocre-to-poor defenses. Well, the Jets fall on the poor end of that scale. New York ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA, 27th in rush defense DVOA, and 30th in opponent scoring, allowing 29.4 points per game. The Colts' balance on offense should allow them to pick apart the Jets’ defense.

Meanwhile, we already spoke about how White should be able to move the ball through the air against the Colts defense, and the Jets are coming off a game where they put up 34 against a Bengals defense that ranked fifth in defensive DVOA. Now, asking the Jets to do it again may be a little much, but they should be able to do their part and send this one Over the number.

Jonathan Taylor has been all-or-nothing in the passing game for the Colts this year. Taylor has 265 receiving yards this season, but 228 of those have come in three games, including hauling in three catches for 52 yards last week against the Titans. 

While Taylor’s use in the passing game has varied week-to-week, the Colts have done a good job of using him in space against teams that struggle to cover backs out of the backfield. Taylor’s three big days in the passing game have come against the Seahawks, Ravens, and Titans. Those teams rank last, 26th, and 19th in receiving yards allowed to running backs this season. The Jets meanwhile, have allowed the second-most receiving yards to running backs.

I believe Taylor hauls in a few catches against the Jets and easily eclipses this number.

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