Bills vs Jaguars Week 9 Picks and Predictions: Don’t Miss This Sneaky Tight End Prop

The Bills are no stranger to double-digit spreads this season. They'll face another one in Week 9 when they head to Jacksonville as -14.5-point favorites, but should that scare you away? Find out in our NFL betting picks for Bills vs. Jaguars.

Last Updated: Nov 7, 2021 11:36 AM ET Read Time: 5 min
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Sunday sees the Bills travelling into Jacksonville to face the Jaguars in a game which the sportsbooks are certain they’ll win. The Bills are huge 14.5-point favorites and should leave with the W but can the Jaguars come out on the right side of the spread?

Read our preview as we look into this clash between two gunslingers, Josh Allen and rookie Trevor Lawrence. You can’t bet this Sunday without our NFL picks and predictions for the Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars.

Bills vs Jaguars odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The points total has remained at 48.5 since opening but the Bills have becoming stronger favorites, moving from 13.5-point favorites to 14.5-point favorites. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Bills vs Jaguars picks

Picks made on 11/04/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Bills vs Jaguars game info

Location: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Date: Sunday, November 7, 2021
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Bills at Jaguars betting preview


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Key injuries

Bills: Spencer Brown T (Out), Jon Feliciano G (Out), Dawson Knox TE (Out), Carlos Basham DE (Out).
Jaguars: Tre Herndon CB (Out), James Robinson RB (Out), AJ Cann OL (Out), Brandon Linder OL (Out), DJ Chark WR (Out), Travis Etienne RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Bills are 5-0-1 ATS when facing teams with losing records. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Jaguars.

Bills vs Jaguars predictions

This is a massive spread but given recent results, it’s hard to bet against the Bills here. The gulf between the teams is as clear as it is huge. The 5-2 Bills are arguably the front runner in the AFC, the highest-scoring team in the conference, and with a great defense, whereas the Jaguars are 1-6 and have yet to win in Jacksonville this season.

Trevor Lawrence should be looking at Josh Allen as his inspiration. Allen was picked 7th overall in the 2018 NFL Draft from Wyoming and ensured a horrific rookie season, throwing 12 interceptions and just 10 touchdowns with a QB rating of 67.9. Trevor Lawrence’s 2021 season has been better than that, his QBR sits at 74.0 but he has also thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, eight TDs to nine INTs. Allen worked on his craft and has become one of the best quarterbacks in the league over the past two seasons. Lawrence clearly has the tools and is capable of some mesmeric moments but we need to see more consistency and improved decision making. He can’t help the team around him but it feels like there is still far more that he could be doing.

Against the Seahawks last week Lawrence threw for 238 yards, one touchdown, one interception and a 59.3% completion percentage. This week he’s facing the Bills who are ranked first in DVOA, unlike the Seahawks, ranked 21st. Nobody in the league is holding teams to fewer points, an average of 15.6 per game and nobody is holding teams to less total yardage (269.0) and passing yardage (182.4) per game. That doesn’t bode well for the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence. Only five teams are scoring less per game and now they have to face a defense that has looked strong throughout the season.

So, the Bills win, we all knew that, but will they cover the hefty 14.5 spread? It’s worth noting that the Bills are 5-0-1 against teams with a losing record, while the Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their past five home games against teams with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in their past six games as a home underdog. 

Last Sunday, in the first game following a bye, the Jaguars faced an injury-torn Seattle Seahawks team as 3-point underdogs. They got shredded 31-7 and continued to showcase why they have one of the worst, if not the worst, secondaries in the league. Tyler Lockett went off for 142 yards and DK Metcalf managed to convert six receptions into two touchdowns. They now welcome Josh Allen to town and will see Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders run riot over their secondary. This game will be a murder and won’t be remotely close. You can feel comfortable when backing the Bills to cover here.

We know the Bills will keep the scoreboard ticking at the TIAA Bank Field on Sunday. They’ve been averaging 32.7 points per game and now face the Jaguars who as detailed above, are awful on defense. The two things that I think we need to factor into our decision are the Jaguars' offense and how well they’ll compete against the Bills' defense and whether there is any chance that Josh Allen gets benched if the Bills are doing well, which would see Mitchell Trubisky enter the game.

I’d be surprised if we didn’t see Trubisky at some point on Sunday. This game won’t be close and it would make sense for the Bills to give their star QB a rest. 

Then it comes down to how well we think the Jaguars will perform on offense. They average 17.6 points per game but that is surely set to shrink against a great defense and is more likely to look similar to what they put up against the Seahawks last week. This could be a real sweat with the result certain to be close to the total of 48.5 but I’d expect it to be Under.

I’m not expecting a great offensive display from the Jaguars so it might come as a surprise that I’m backing a Jags player to be hitting their Over on a receiving yards prop. 

The reason behind this is simple, since Week Five, his first game with a full week of training behind him since his arrival from the Cardinals, Arnold has quietly been getting better and better. In terms of tight ends, he ranked a very impressive 5th in target share (18.5%), 9th in receiving yards share (19.2%) and 14th in air yards share (14.9%). We all know the cliché about how rookie quarterbacks rely on their tight ends as a crutch, and it seems that Dan Arnold has already become a favorite target of Trevor Lawrence. Use that to your advantage here and take the Over.

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