The Jacksonville Jaguars are 2.5-point favorites over the Houston Texans, with a 42.5-point total for Sunday’s 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff at Wembley Stadium.
Jacksonville is back in London for a second straight week, and my Jaguars vs. Texans anytime touchdown scorer predictions target matchup-driven value on both sides of the ball.
For more Jaguars vs. Texans predictions, check out our latest NFL picks for Oct. 18.
Best Jaguars vs Texans anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Brenton Strange |
22% |
 Nico Collins |
37% |
| First TD: Nico Collins |
11% |
| Long shot: Xavier Hutchinson |
12% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jaguars touchdown pick: Brenton Strange
Tight end Brenton Strange's anytime touchdown probability should be at least 25%. Strange has the best matchup of any Jacksonville Jaguars pass-catcher and has played the second-highest snap rate among Jacksonville's skill-position players.
The middle of the Houston Texans' defense is its weakest area in coverage. Per Pro Football Focus, MLB Azeez Al-Shaair owns the worst coverage grade among 64 qualified linebackers, and the Texans are also without versatile safety Jalen Pitre.
Strange is Jacksonville's second-most targeted receiver and stays on the field in short-yardage situations. That gives him a real chance to be one of the few eligible receivers near the goal line, where the Jaguars can sneak him out on play-action passes.
Texans touchdown pick: Nico Collins
Houston wideout Nico Collins is one of the biggest game-breakers in football, and his anytime touchdown probability is playable up to 40%.
Collins has scored three touchdowns in three games this season and ranks as PFF’s 10th-highest-graded wide receiver.
The Jacksonville history is even more encouraging. Since Houston drafted C.J. Stroud in 2023, Collins has produced five 100-yard games and three touchdowns in six meetings with the Jaguars.
The bottom line is simple: Collins remains Stroud’s go-to receiver, and they have consistently given Jacksonville problems.
First touchdown scorer pick: Nico Collins
I'm good with Collins' first touchdown probability up to 14%. Collins is the best offensive player on either team, yet he has only the fourth-highest price in this market.
If scoring opportunities are limited, I want my exposure concentrated on Collins, who should command the highest target share in this matchup and remains Stroud's most dangerous option whenever Houston gets near the end zone.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Xavier Hutchinson
Per PFF, Xavier Hutchinson ranks 27th among qualified wide receivers, and his slot role gives him a favorable matchup against Jaguars nickelback Jourdan Lewis, who owns a failing coverage grade.
Hutchinson also holds a clear size advantage, standing 6-foot-2 and weighing 205 pounds compared to Lewis at 5-foot-10 and 195 pounds.
Houston's addition of WR Marvin Harrison Jr. should only help. With Harrison and Collins demanding attention outside, Jacksonville will have a harder time shading extra coverage toward Hutchinson in the slot.
Jaguars vs Texans touchdown combo
Brenton Strange
Nico Collins
Strange and Collins give me two different touchdown paths in the same game. Strange should benefit from Houston’s issues covering the middle of the field, especially in short-yardage situations where Jacksonville can scheme him open off play action.
Collins is the more obvious scoring threat. He’s Stroud’s go-to weapon and has repeatedly hurt Jacksonville since Stroud arrived.
If this game stays competitive, both offenses should reach the red zone often enough for each player to get a legitimate scoring opportunity. Strange attacks Houston’s weakest coverage area, while Collins is the best player on the field.
- TD picks: 15-27, -6.45 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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