NFL Week 3 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football clash between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.
These offenses have been shaky to start the season, but our Falcons vs. Packers computer picks have dug through the Covers prop projections to find some NFL picks worth adding to your card before the action kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video tonight.
Falcons vs Packers computer picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Falcons |
 Packers |
|---|---|
| Michael Penix o199.5 passing yards 53% |
Jordan Love o224.5 passing yards 55% |
| Bijan Robinson o79.5 rushing yards 47% |
MarShawn Lloyd o24.5 rushing yards 52% |
| Drake London o59.5 receiving yards 57% |
Tucker Kraft o39.5 receiving yards 59% |
| Drake London anytime touchdown 32% |
MarShawn Lloyd anytime touchdown 30% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Falcons computer picks
Michael Penix Jr. Over 199.5 passing yards
Projection: 224.6 passing yards
Michael Penix Jr. has reached 200 passing yards in eight of his 12 career starts, and this projection gives us 25 yards of room to get Over this number. The Packers just gave up 247 to Geno Smith despite the Jets only scoring 17 points.
🔥 Trade PENIX passing yards now
Bijan Robinson Over 79.5 rushing yards
Projection: 81.4 rushing yards
This is only a slight lean to the Over, but this is not a huge number for one of the best running backs in the sport. Bijan Robinson has 155 yards through two games despite averaging a career-low 4.2 yards per carry. Bijan has the ability to cut this total in half in one play.
🔥 Trade ROBINSON rushing yards now
Drake London Over 59.5 receiving yards
Projection: 75.8 receiving yards
It's been a slow start for Drake London, with just six catches on 10 targets for 81 yards. Still, projections are calling for more than 75 yards with more of a pure passer under center.
🔥 Trade LONDON receiving yards now
Drake London anytime touchdowns
Projection: 0.44 touchdowns
That love for London's projections extends to his touchdown price. At 0.44 projected touchdowns, a 32% touchdown price is a steal for the team's top-targeted wide receiver.
Packers computer picks
Jordan Love Over 224.5 passing yards
Projection: 245.0 passing yards
Jordan Love has 532 passing yards through two games, and this projection calls for nearly 250 passing yards against a Falcons defense that allowed 287 yards to Bryce Young and 221 to an old Aaron Rodgers.
🔥 Trade LOVE passing yards now
MarShawn Lloyd Over 24.5 rushing yards
Projection: 57.1 rushing yards
At just 24.5 yards, MarShawn Lloyd doesn't need heavy volume to clear this mark — just 4-6 touches (he has 19 carries in two games) or a single explosive run could cover it. With his projected total more than double the set line, the Over is in a prime spot tonight against Atlanta's defense.
🔥 Trade LLOYD rushing yards now
Tucker Kraft Over 39.5 receiving yards
Projection: 50.4 receiving yards
Tucker Kraft has solidified his role as one of Love’s most trusted middle-of-the-field targets. His dynamic yard-after-catch (YAC) ability means he can smash this line on just three or four receptions.
🔥 Trade KRAFT receiving yards now
MarShawn Lloyd anytime touchdown
Projection: 0.57 touchdowns
Green Bay frequently relies on Lloyd in close-quarters opportunities — whether on goal-line carries or short dump-offs. He showed off that exact utility last week, capitalizing on a red-zone target to find paydirt against the Jets.
🔥 Trade LLOYD receiving yards now
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