College Football AI Predictions Week 4: ATS Picks & Score Predictions for Every Game

Knoxville gets one of the week's tightest calls: Tennessee 28, Texas 27. The Longhorns held UTSA to six points last week, while the Volunteers beat Kennesaw State 42-9. Our projection gives Tennessee just enough offense to win at home, making the Vols +4.5 the ATS choice. The 55-point sum sits only half a point below 55.5, so the Under is a much thinner lean than the spread.

Georgia put up 45 at Arkansas, but Oklahoma arrives after a much quieter 14-6 win over New Mexico. The Bulldogs are still the clear straight-up choice at 29-16. The distinction is the spread: that 13-point margin leaves Oklahoma inside +13.5 by just half a point. Under 45.5 is equally narrow, with exactly 45 points in the projection. Both selections sit close to the line.

Purdue scored 38 at UCLA and still lost by two touchdowns. That makes the Boilermakers' offense relevant here even with Notre Dame firmly favored. The Irish are projected to win 45-20, leaving Purdue inside a hefty +27.5. Those 20 home points also help push the combined score to 65, comfortably above 58.5. It's an underdog-and-Over pairing built around Purdue contributing enough to a game Notre Dame controls.

Ole Miss beat LSU 32-24, and Florida won a 44-39 shootout at Auburn. Our projection keeps both offenses involved in Gainesville, with the Gators edging the Rebels 34-31. Florida gets the straight-up nod, but a field-goal margin gives Ole Miss +3.5 the ATS selection by the smallest cushion. There's more room on the total: 65 projected points clear 59.5 by 5.5.

Northwestern's 41-7 win over Colorado makes this a more interesting Friday test than the Wildcats' name might suggest. Indiana answered its own assignment with a 38-0 shutout of Western Kentucky. The model keeps the Hoosiers in charge at 34-13, although that 21-point margin barely clears -20.5. Holding Northwestern to 13 also leaves the combined score at 47, supporting Under 49.5.

Miami won 33-20 at Wake Forest and now draws a Central Michigan team coming off a 24-10 victory over Wyoming. The model sees a far tougher scoring assignment for the Chippewas, holding them to seven in a 42-7 Hurricanes win. Even that five-touchdown margin falls short of 41.5, giving Central Michigan the ATS pick. The limited visiting offense also points toward Under 53.5.

Ohio State beat Kent State 59-3, while Illinois handled Southern Illinois 48-10. This is a more demanding matchup for both offenses, and the model brings the score down to Ohio State 40, Illinois 14. The Buckeyes remain comfortable winners, but the 26-point margin favors Illinois +27.5. Over 53.5 comes with almost no cushion: the two projected scores add up to 54.

Alabama scored 50 against Florida State but allowed 36, while South Carolina lost a 41-34 game to Mississippi State. Neither result offered much encouragement for an Under. Our projection gives the Crimson Tide a better defensive showing at 37-21 while still reaching 58 total points. That supports Over 53.5, with Alabama's 16-point winning margin also clearing the -11.5 spread.

Both teams need a response after Week 3 losses: LSU fell 32-24 at Ole Miss, and Texas A&M lost 31-21 to Kentucky. The model gives the Tigers the bounce-back win in Baton Rouge, 30-24. A six-point gap makes the Aggies +8.5 the ATS choice, though, so the straight-up and spread selections split. The combined 54 points also edge past the 51.5 total.

Texas Tech escaped Houston 28-26, while Sam Houston rolled Nicholls 59-0. Those results came against very different opponents, and the model still makes the Red Raiders comfortable 38-14 winners. The question is whether they can cover 33.5; our 24-point margin says to take Sam Houston. With the Bearkats projected to manage two touchdowns, the total stays at 52, below 55.5.

Oregon's 84-0 win over Portland State and USC's 42-35 escape at Rutgers set up a much more competitive scoring test in Los Angeles. The model gives USC a 35-34 win, putting the home underdog on both the straight-up and ATS cards at +3.5. The combined 69 points also clear 62.5. This is a close winner call with a much clearer lean toward offense.

Both teams topped 50 last week, with Wisconsin beating Eastern Michigan 54-10 and Penn State defeating Buffalo 55-13. The model sees a much bigger defensive drop-off for the Badgers in this matchup, projecting a 34-14 Penn State win. That 20-point margin offers one of the larger gaps against a featured spread at -9.5. The 48-point sum also supports Over 44.5.

Utah shut out Utah State 33-0, and Iowa State beat Bowling Green 55-7. Neither defense gets such a comfortable assignment this time. Our projection has Utah winning 30-21 in Ames, enough to cover -7.5 by 1.5 points. Iowa State's three-touchdown contribution matters to the total, too: the combined 51 points send the selection Over 47.5 despite both teams' strong defensive results last week.

Louisville scored 41 in its win over SMU, while Wake Forest put up 20 in a loss to Miami. The Cardinals are projected to reach the high 30s again, with a 38-24 win here. That lands barely beyond the -13.5 spread, so the ATS pick is a narrow one. The total has more breathing room: 62 combined points clear 57.5.

Iowa and Michigan both topped 50 last week, but this projection looks far more like the low-scoring Big Ten game the matchup suggests. The Hawkeyes squeeze out a 20-19 road win, making Iowa +5.5 the ATS selection. Don't mistake that score for an automatic Under, though: 39 combined points are half a point above 38.5. The Over is a particularly thin lean.

Mississippi State just scored 41 in a road win over South Carolina, and the model gives the Bulldogs another productive SEC outing at home. A 37-27 victory over Missouri clears -6.5 and sends the combined score Over 58.5. Missouri beat Troy 27-17 last week, but the projected 27 points aren't enough here. The Bulldogs' offense is the separator in this scoreline.

SMU allowed 41 at Louisville, while Missouri State lost 30-24 to Marshall. The model has the Mustangs recovering with a 42-17 win, but a 25-point margin still leaves Missouri State well inside +34.5. The total offers far less separation: 59 projected points fall only half a point below 59.5. Missouri State gets the clearer numerical cushion, with the Under a narrow lean.

Houston nearly won at Texas Tech before falling 28-26, and the model backs the Cougars to recover at Georgia Southern. The projected 31-20 result is more restrained than a -17.5 road spread, putting the Eagles on the ATS card. Georgia Southern is coming off a 31-27 loss at Jacksonville State; holding it to 20 here keeps the combined score at 51, below 56.5.

Liberty scored 51 against Ball State last week, but the model doesn't see another comfortable Flames win on the road. Coastal Carolina gets the slightest edge, 24-23, after losing 22-14 at Delaware. That makes the Chanticleers +2.5 the ATS choice in Thursday's opener. The combined 47 points also support Under 48.5, although neither the projected winner nor the total comes with much separation.