Thursday Night Football for Week 3 is here and so are our Falcons vs. Packers expert picks.
Four of our key football analysts have broken down the matchup to serve up their favorite NFL picks for tonight's clash, including a Kaleb Johnson anytime touchdown helping lead the Packers to cover the 5.5-point spread on Thursday, Sept. 24.
That and plenty more in our Falcons vs. Packers predictions for tonight's prime-time clash at Lambeau Field, with kickoff at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.
Falcons vs Packers expert picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Expert Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Jason Logan: London 60+ rec yds |
57% |
 Josh Inglis: Johnson ATD |
24% |
 Joe Osborne: u44.5 |
56% |
 Jon Metler: GB -5.5 |
47% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jason Logan’s expert pick: Drake London 60+ receiving yards
Price: 57% at Kalshi
Michael Penix Jr. gives the Atlanta Falcons a step up at QB, and he’s always had eyes for Drake London.
London is one of the elite wide receivers against zone defense and will see plenty of zone coverage from the Green Bay Packers. His Week 3 projections all sit north of 60 yards with a ceiling of 72 yards.
My number boils down to 67+ given the pass-positive game script for Atlanta as a road underdog tonight.
For more from Jason Logan, check out his Falcons vs. Packers props for Thursday Night Football.
Josh Inglis' expert pick: Kaleb Johnson anytime touchdown
Price: 24% at Kalshi
The Packers backfield can be a goldmine if deciphered correctly against the Falcons. I have Kaleb Johnson at 2.7x and hope he gets the early-down work and the red-zone role.
MarShawn Lloyd lost a fourth-quarter fumble last week and saw just one more snap. After that, Johnson got the overtime carries after Chris Brooks received the fourth-quarter workload.
Johnson is known as a mistake-free player from his time at Iowa and could start on TNF, and Lloyd might be third on this depth chart.
For more end-zone fun, Kyle LaRusic has a trio of Falcons vs. Packers touchdown predictions.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Under 44.5
Price: 56% at Kalshi
Penix is an upgrade at QB, but not a massive one.
Atlanta averaged just 20.6 points per game in his starts last season, and only 16 in his five road starts.
Green Bay has its own problems after managing only 199 total yards against the Jets in Week 2 while losing Jayden Reed and dealing with multiple offensive-line injuries. That's less than ideal on a short week.
Both defenses have allowed fewer than three yards per carry through two weeks, which could create plenty of difficult third-down situations for two offenses that have struggled to sustain drives so far this season.
Jon Metler’s expert pick: Packers -5.5
Price: 47% at Kalshi
Give me the Packers as 5.5-point favorites, as I price them closer to -6.5 in this matchup.
Sure, Penix is back, which means Falcons fans don't have to suffer through Cooper Rush anymore, but this will be his first game in 10 months following major knee surgery, and he'll be stepping into a tough road environment.
The market is moving toward the Falcons, with the Packers initially opening as 7-point favorites following their Week 2 overtime victory over the New York Jets. But with the line dropping to Packers -5.5, there's a buy opportunity here. I make Green Bay closer to -6.5 and believe the opening number was much closer to the correct line.
How to watch Falcons vs Packers
| Location | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis. |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime Video |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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