The Atlanta Falcons might be 5-6 SU, but they’re still sitting on top of the NFC South heading into their Week 13 matchup with the New York Jets who will have Tim Boyle under center as a 2-point home dog on the NFL odds board.
Coming off a zero-target game and seemingly being phased out of an offense that is abandoning the pass, is it time to fade Jonnu Smith and the secondary pass-catchers for the Falcons?
Falcons vs Jets odds
Falcons vs Jets predictions
The Atlanta Falcons put OC Dave Ragone up in the booth to “help” Desmond Ridder and despite the 24-15 win over the Saints, it was an ugly performance from the quarterback who had two picks and completed just 13 of 21 passes.
The Falcons have the most run-heavy offense over the last three weeks at 57% and with so much on the line, it will be another low-volume passing game for the Birds who have three running backs right now to hand off to.
That’s bad news for No. 2 tight end Jonnu Smith but great news for his Under 20.5 yards bet.
Smith had 34 receptions over an eight-game stretch starting in Week 2, but he has been non-existent in the last two games where he has just one catch on three targets across 24 routes. Last week alone, he ran just nine routes and wasn’t even targeted.
With Ridder struggling and this team needing wins, it will be a lot of running and not a lot of Smith who also faces a Jets’ defense that defends the position well, ranking in the Top 10 in yards allowed to TEs.
There has been a big move in his yards as it was 28.5 yards last week, but this is a guy who will be lucky to see two targets Sunday, let alone two receptions and 20-plus yards. I’m playing this Under to 16.5 yards.
My best bet: Jonnu Smith Under 18.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Falcons vs Jets same-game parlay
Jonnu Smith Under 18.5 receiving yards
Bijan Robinson Over 81.5 rush + rec yards
Tyler Allgeier Over 32.5 rushing yards
It's going to be another heavy running game for the Falcons. Tyler Allgeier had 10 carries last week and totaled 64 rushing yards while Bijan Robinson had 91 yards alone on the ground on 16 carries.
The rookie running back also had three of the 13 completions. He will be heavily involved and Smith and the pass-catchers likely won't considering Ridder's struggles and where the Falcons sit in the division.
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Falcons vs Jets spread and Over/Under analysis
This could be the worst QB game of Week 13 as Desmond Ridder heads to the Meadowlands as a 2/2.5-point favorite that has touched -3 but the Jets and Tim Boyle had some resistance at +3.
This was ATL -1.5 on the look-ahead and a total of 35 but that total has fallen as it currently sits at 33.5/34 as of Thursday afternoon.
Atlanta has run the ball more than anyone over the last three weeks and it’s tough for the coaching staff to trust Ridder with the ball at this point. Bettors should expect another 55-60% run rate from Arthur Smith and the Falcons. With Atlanta leading the NFC North, a conservative approach to play-calling should be guaranteed. Last week alone, Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and Cordarelle Patterson all split carries in a 16/10/8 fashion.
It will be Tim Boyle under center this week with Aaron Rodgers targeting the December 24th game to return. Boyle completed 27 passes but for just 178 yards last week and also took seven sacks. His best skilled player, Breece Hall, was DNP at practice on Wednesday and his right tackle Mekhi Becton was limited on Wednesday after missing Week 12.
It’s tough to get excited about either offense but it looks like NYJ +3 is the limit here unless Hall sits and then this line could move to 3 across the board. Either way, this a game featuring a pair of awful offenses in which early bettors took the Under which is my favorite bet of the Big 3 — even at 34. Both QBs finished in the Bottom 5 in QB rating last week.
Ridder will be handled with baby gloves and Boyle has no time to get the ball deep. This is also a New York offense that gave undrafted rookie WR Jason Brownlee a 100% route share vs. Miami last week.
If the weather holds, there could be some rain which could easily drive this total down to numbers bettors have already seen this year around 33 or 32.5. I like the Under at 34.
Falcons vs Jets betting trend to know
The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+5.00 Units / 62% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Jets.
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Falcons vs Jets game info
|MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
|Sunday, December 3, 2023
|1:00 p.m. ET
|Jets +1.5, 36.5 O/U
Falcons vs Jets latest injuries
Falcons vs Jets weather
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