Dolphins vs Jets Week 11 Picks and Predictions: Jets Sputter Out Again

New York's been suffering through another lost season, now on its third QB with a lot more questions than answers. Find out if it can keep things competitive at home against Miami as we preview our NFL betting picks for Dolphins vs. Jets.

Last Updated: Nov 21, 2021 11:43 AM ET Read Time: 5 min
Tua Tagovailoa Miami Dolphins NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Mike White bandwagon has gone off the cliff as the New York Jets will start Joe Flacco in their home meeting versus the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Tua Tagovailoa will also get the start for the Dolphins after replacing an injured Jacoby Brissett in Week 10. Despite the appointment of Flacco, the Dolphins are still 3-point road favorites. 

Here are our free picks and predictions and NFL betting odds for Dolphins vs. Jets for Sunday, November 21.

Dolphins vs Jets odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This was MIA -2.5 on the look-ahead and opened MIA -3. Since the news of Flacco starting, this number is starting to lean to the 3.5. The total has dropped a full point from 45.5 to 45.5. Miami was a 7.5-point favorite in New York last season in Week 12.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Dolphins vs Jets predictions

Predictions made on 11/18/2021 at 11:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Dolphins vs Jets game info

Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Date: Sunday, November 21, 2021
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET

Dolphins at Jets betting preview


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Key injuries

Dolphins: Noah Igbinoghene CB (Out), Salvon Ahmed RB (Out), Hunter Long TE (Out), Darius Hodge LB (Out), John Henkins DL (Out).
Jets: Zach Wilson QB (Out), Isaiah Williams OL (Out), La'Mical Perine RB (Out), Jonathan Marshall DL (Out), Tim Ward DL (Out), Jarrod Wilson DB (Out), Rachad Wildgoose DB (Out).

Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Dolphins are 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Jets.

Dolphins vs Jets picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

We may be running out of time to get the Dolphins at -3 versus a Joe Flacco-led New York offense. The Jets got absolutely pummeled by the Bills last week, 45-17, had five turnovers, allowed 9.1 yards per play, and had just two red-zone trips. Miami is coming off a big TNF win in Week 10 — i.e. extra rest — and played the same Bills team competitively for 50 minutes just three weeks ago. This line is inching its way to 3.5 and there is probably a good reason for that.

The Jets’ defense is just trash. It’s given up *gets calculator* 174 points over the last four games. Those four matches were against the Bengals, Pats, Colts and Bills — the 19th-, 13th-, ninth- and thirrd-ranked offenses in EPA/play. The defense is seemingly banged up at every position, has been getting owned all year, and ranks dead last in success rate.

Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa will be under center on Sunday for the Fins. He looked more than decent in a relief role last Thursday, where he went 8 for 13 for 158 yards in a defeat of the Ravens. The Dolphins spread the ball around in that win — their second in as many weeks — but it was the defense that has impressed of late.

Josh Boyer’s defense held Lamar Jackson to 238 yards on 26 of 43 passing. They also held the swift-footed QB to just 38 yards on the ground. The Miami defense will have a much easier time this week vs. Flacco. The 36-year-old QB will be making his first start of the year. He started four games for the Jets last year, going 0-4 SU, including a 24-0 loss to the Dolphins in Week 6. 

New York was +7.5 at home vs. Miami last season in Week 12 (20-3 loss) and +10 in Miami in the aforementioned Flacco start in Week 6. We’ll gladly take this MIA -3 line this week. 

Prediction: Dolphins -3 (-115)

The Jets have scored just three points versus the Dolphins over the last two meetings — both last year. The offense has scored 31 of its last 94 most-recent points in the first half as the total point production may be misleading with New York playing in some lopsided games over the last 30 days. 

Both offenses sit in the bottom five in points per play, touchdowns per game, points per game and EPA/play. These offenses also sit in the bottom 10 in success rate and explosive play rate. In short, neither of these offenses push the needle for us and it's likely the reason the total never tickled the key number of 47.

Miami is one of the worst rushing teams in football and both passing attacks sit in the bottom 10 in success rate. With Flacco, the Jets’ passing game should be downgraded even more. In his one game against this same defense last year, he completed just 21 of 44 passes for 186 yards and one interception.

Yes, the Jets’ defense is a mess, but both offenses are bottom-tier and the Dolphins’ defense has finally found its groove after struggling to repeat last season’s success. 

The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings and the most points these two teams have combined for over the last three seasons is 44 points. 

Prediction: Under 44.5 (-110)

Joe Flacco is not the answer for this New York team, and it’s a shame that the new coaching staff has gone down this ugly fork in the road. In Flacco’s four starts last season, Gang Green averaged 16.25 points per game and scored one TD or less in two games — one against Miami. 

Brian Flores’ squad is coming off a game where they held one of the best offenses to 10 points and has given up just one TD over its last eight quarters. The Bills and Ravens combined for just 561 total yards versus Miami, which is good for 4.1 yards per play. The Miami defense has also forced six turnovers in the last two games.

The Jets have scored more than 18 points just once over the last six meetings and we are doubting they top their team total with Flacco under center and this Miami defense starting to find its swagger. 

The Jets’ team total can be found as high as 21.5 (-146). The 21.5 is obviously a key number and we’re willing to take the price versus New York’s probability of scoring more than three TDs. 

Pick: Jets team total Under 21.5 (-146)

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