Dolphins vs 49ers Week 13 Picks and Predictions: Miami an Endangered Species in San Fran

The Dolphins have been routing teams lately, but they haven't faced a true test on defense in a while, and boy, are they getting one in Week 13. See why the 49ers should keep Tua & Co. at bay with our NFL betting picks.

Last Updated: Dec 4, 2022 8:34 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

Two of the hottest teams in the NFL will go toe-to-toe at Levi’s Stadium in Week 13 as the Miami Dolphins take on the San Francisco 49ers.

Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins have won five straight contests by an average margin of 10 points, albeit they were all over teams with losing records. Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers have reeled off four consecutive victories, highlighted by a triumph over the Chargers, and a shutout win over the Saints last week. 

Can San Francisco cash in for chalk-players, or will Miami pick up one of its biggest decisions of the season? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Dolphins vs. 49ers on Sunday, December 4.

Dolphins vs 49ers best odds

Dolphins vs 49ers picks and predictions

The Dolphins have enjoyed an incredibly easy schedule over the last few weeks, and Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle were all able to pad their stat lines in a big way. But they could be in for a rude awakening in the Bay Area when they take on the 49ers and their elite defense this Sunday.

No matter how you slice it, San Francisco’s stoppers are at the top of the heap heading into December. They’re first in the NFL in yards allowed per game (at 281.7, they’re currently the only defense below the 300-yard mark), points allowed per game (15.7), first downs allowed per game (16.5), and yards allowed per play (4.7). This unit has weathered several injuries, but they’re on the mend heading into the final few weeks of the regular season. Arik Armstead — who has played only three games all year due to a foot injury — may make his return to the lineup at defensive end, giving this unit a shot in the arm.

Tagovailoa has enjoyed playing behind a solid offensive line all season (eighth-fewest sacks allowed with 23), but this unit showed signs of erosion against Houston last week, surrendering four sacks. They’ll have their mettle tested by Nick Bosa and the rest of the Niners’ pass rush, which ranks eighth in sacks this year (33). 

When San Fran has the football, bettors should expect Jimmy Garoppolo to move the chains through the air with relative ease. Miami heads into this one ranked 22nd in passing defense at 233.8 yards allowed per game. That comes despite the fact it’s given up fewer than 200 passing yards in each of its last three games, as they faced the likes of Justin Fields, Jacoby Brissett, and Davis Mills. 

Even if Jimmy G doesn’t have Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel at full strength, his defense should do enough to ensure that the 49ers win and cover this week.

My best bet: 49ers -3.5 (-107 at PointsBet)

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Dolphins vs 49ers spread analysis

Regardless of whether or not former 49er Raheem Mostert is able to suit up at running back for the Dolphins, San Francisco should force Miami to become a one-dimensional offense.

Mostert, if healthy, would be taking on an elite Niners rush defense that’s allowed a league-low 79.5 yards per game on the ground. Their average gain allowed of 3.3 yards is far better than second place, which is currently held by four teams at 3.9 yards allowed per rush.

The Dolphins’ rush defense isn’t too shabby, ranking 10th in yards allowed per game, but that doesn’t mean opposing running backs can’t get involved in other ways. Miami has allowed the 12th-most passing yards per game to tailbacks, and has surrendered exactly one touchdown per game to the position in 2022. 

Assuming McCaffrey plays — and San Fran will likely try to push him that way since undrafted rookie Jordan Mason is next on the depth chart following another long-term injury suffered by Elijah Mitchell last week — he should gather his scrimmage yards one way or another.  

Trend bettors should note that the 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games against teams with winning home records.

Dolphins vs 49ers Over/Under analysis

The Under looks like the right side in this one, and if you’re keen on betting it, getting in early might be wise in case the injuries to McCaffrey and Samuel take a turn for the worse. 

The Niners should nullify the Fins’ ground game with a hobbled Mostert in the backfield (if he plays at all), and are capable of giving Tagovailoa fits when he drops back to throw.

San Francisco hasn’t been an elite offense this year, ranking 10th in yardage (358.5 per game) and 15th in scoring (22.6 points per game), so there’s little chance of them “going off” in this spot despite playing a mediocre Miami defense. Even during their four-game win streak, they’ve averaged a modest 364.8 yards per game. In five home games this year, the 49ers have scored an average of only 21.8 points.

Several trends support the Under, which is 22-7 in the Dolphins’ last 29 games following a straight-up win of more than 14 points, and 5-2 in their last seven games against teams with winning records. The Under is also 14-5 in the 49ers’ last 19 games overall, and 6-1 in their last seven home games.

Dolphins vs 49ers betting trend to know

The Under is 6-1 in the 49ers’ last seven games against teams with winning records. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. 49ers.

Dolphins vs 49ers game info

Location: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Date: Sunday, December 4, 2022
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
Opening odds: 49ers -4, 48 O/U

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