Week 3 in the NFL offers several strong survivor options, but the Kansas City Chiefs lead the board with an 87% Kalshi win probability against the Miami Dolphins.
My Week 3 Survivor Pool picks break down the Chiefs, Lions, 49ers, Seahawks, and Eagles, while our NFL picks page offers more expert analysis for the entire slate.
Week 3 Survivor Pool rankings
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Win Probability |
Why They'll Win |
|---|---|---|
1.  Chiefs |
87% | This is the easiest game on Kansas City's schedule, and the Dolphins may not win a single game this season |
2.  Lions |
74% | Detroit has the rest advantage, while the Jets have a bottom-tier QB/HC combo |
3.  49ers |
80% | Niners QB Brock Purdy is playing at an MVP level, and he historically owns the Cardinals |
4.  Seahawks |
76% | Seattle's defense looks even better this season, and it crushed the Commanders last year |
5.  Eagles |
70% | Philly's best players are healthy, and Chicago could be starting Case Keenum |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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1. Chiefs (@ Dolphins)
- Why to take them: Patrick Mahomes is back, and the Kansas City Chiefs look like a Super Bowl contender again. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins barely look competitive.
- Why to save them: The Chiefs have a few favorable matchups remaining on their schedule and will likely be a popular choice this week, making a contrarian approach more appealing.
2. Lions (vs Jets)
- Why to take them: The Detroit Lions' offensive game-breakers are healthy, while the New York Jets are just 1-5 SU against NFC opponents since last year.
- Why to save them: Detroit has several cupcake matchups looming, including the Titans in Week 14 and the Jaxson Dart-less Giants in Week 16.
3. 49ers (vs Cardinals)
- Why to take them: San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is 5-1 SU against the Arizona Cardinals, with the Niners boasting a +15.6 scoring margin in those matchups.
- Why to save them: The Niners still have future survivor value against the Commanders (Week 6), the Raiders coming out of their bye (Week 9), and the Giants (Week 13).
4. Seahawks (@ Commanders)
- Why to take them: Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is sidelined with an injury, and this is a bottom-five NFL team without him under center.
- Why to save them: Wait until Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold is fully healthy, especially with the defending champs traveling east for an early kickoff.
5. Eagles (@ Bears)
- Why to take them: This is a relatively contrarian play, with the Philadelphia Eagles on the road and much bigger favorites on the board this week.
- Why to save them: The Eagles host the Steelers after their Week 10 bye, and Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams still hasn't been officially ruled out for Sunday.
Week 3 Survivor Pool strategy
It's hard to make an anti-Chiefs argument outside of the "contrarian" angle, knowing they'll be the most popular pick this week. Kansas City has the second-best odds to win the AFC, while the Dolphins are the favorites to finish with the worst record in the NFL. My strategy is to take the free square and move on.
I left the Bills out of my top five this week despite their 77% win probability against the Chargers being higher than the Eagles' chances against the Bears. Despite Buffalo having the rest and home-field advantages, I refuse to believe the 0-2 Chargers are this bad.
Eventually, Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh will rally, and this feels like a semi-must-win game for LAC. I'm sticking with the Chiefs and hoping my fellow survivor league entrants overthink this week.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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