The Dallas Cowboys seem to believe more fingers will plug holes in their leaky defense ahead of tonight’s matchup with the Green Bay Packers. My Cowboys vs. Packers prediction takes a long look at how that could impact SNF's soaring total.
With first-year defensive coordinator Christian Parker in over his head, Dallas brought in veteran coach Mike Pettine as an "assistant" and is banishing Parker to the coaches’ booth for Week 6.
All that scrambling hasn’t convinced the markets, with Sunday Night Football’s total climbing out to the highest number on the board.
Let's dive into that total and other top NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 18, with kickoff coming from Lambeau Field at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
Cowboys vs Packers prediction: Over 53.5
While this Over/Under has climbed since opening at 50.5, it still sits below a key stop of 54 points. With that in mind, 53.5 is as high as I'd go.
The Dallas Cowboys’ defensive woes are driving this market, and rightfully so. Dallas is dead last in several key metrics and ranks fourth in most explosive plays allowed.
The pass defense is notably soft and faces a Green Bay Packers air attack that flexed its downfield muscles in Week 5. Quarterback Jordan Love has the Cheeseheads as the fourth-most explosive team entering Week 6.
The Cowboys offense is not to be outdone, however. Dallas’ clearest path to victory is a shootout, and QB Dak Prescott headlines a top 5 offense in both EPA per play and DVOA.
Green Bay’s stop unit is dealing with injuries in the secondary and up front, with the Packers boasting just two healthy defensive linemen.
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Cowboys vs Packers combo
It’s really Over or nothing when it comes to this total. We have two excellent quarterbacks who love to look downfield, a wealth of wide receiver talent, and two defenses that are missing bodies in the secondary.
Dak Prescott is one of the best QBs against zone defense and faces a lot of that in Green Bay. He has to carry the Cowboys with his big arm and is a notable jump in QB competition for a Packers defense missing key bodies in Week 6.
Matthew Golden isn’t just a threat to take the top of this soft Cowboys secondary, but he’s also drawn the most red-zone targets among the Cheeseheads’ receivers. Touchdown forecasts sit as high as 53% on SNF.
Cowboys vs Packers combo
- Over 53.5
- Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards
- Matthew Golden anytime touchdown
TOP PICK
Cowboys vs Packers player prop: Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards
Given the growing Over/Under and Dallas' pass-positive game script as road underdogs, Prescott will have plenty of opportunities to go Over his passing yard total on SNF.
Player projections aren’t overly bullish on Prescott, ranging from 260.5 to 275 yards in Week 6, but this matchup with the Packers lines up great for Dak.
New Green Bay defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon runs zone coverage almost exclusively, and Prescott is among the best QBs in the land at picking apart zones (No. 3 passer rating vs. zone), with two zone-busting WRs in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
Those star wideouts could face a Packers secondary short on bodies, with defensive backs Keisean Nixon and Benjamin St-Juste questionable and strong safety Evan Williams dealing with an illness.
The Packers’ defensive prowess is skewed, given their QB competition. Green Bay has played three of its five games against backups (Vikings, Bucs, and Bears). Prescott will be by far the best passer the Packers have faced.
COVERS INTEL: Prescott could also enjoy extra time in the pocket to allow deeper routes to develop, with Green Bay’s defensive line running thin. The Packers don’t blitz much and rank 29th in pass rush win rate at ESPN. Dak has the second-highest offensive rating at PFF when kept clean.Cowboys vs Packers touchdown scorer: Matthew Golden
In the spirit of October, Golden is about to "go yard" on the Dallas defense. The speedy WR has been a home run hitter for the Cheeseheads, tied for the ninth-most receptions of 20+ yards.
Golden isn’t just a downfield threat. He leads all Packers WRs with eight red-zone targets, catching five of those balls and two for touchdowns.
The Cowboys' coverage has been torched by WR2s, rating 28th against second options. The Dallas secondary is also running thin, with DBs Joey Porter Jr. and Cobie Durant missing practice.
Touchdown forecasts have Golden’s paydirt probabilities ranging from 36% to 53%, with my “buy up to” price at 45%.
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Cowboys vs Packers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Cowboys +1.5 | Packers -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (50%) | Under 53.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Cowboys 48% | Packers 52%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
- Top picks: 9-4, +4.04 units
- Combos: 0-13, -13.0 units
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Cowboys vs Packers weather
Forecasts call for a clear and crisp night at Lambeau Field, with game-time temperatures potentially creeping down into the 40s.
Winds blow at 13 mph SW with gusts getting up to 27 mph in the first half, moving corner to corner.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Cowboys vs Packers trend to know
Closing totals of 50+ points have finished Over the number in seven of nine games this season heading into Week 6. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Packers.
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How to watch Cowboys vs Packers
| Location | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis. |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Cowboys vs Packers latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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