Two teams with beat-up defenses collide on Sunday Night Football as the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers meet at Lambeau Field.
My Cowboys vs. Packers anytime touchdown scorer predictions point to CeeDee Lamb, Christian Watson, Javonte Williams, and Jake Ferguson as the likely touchdown scorers.
For more NFL picks ahead of Sunday's prime-time showdown, Jason Logan has you covered with his complete Cowboys vs. Packers predictions.
Best Cowboys vs Packers anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 CeeDee Lamb |
42% |
 Christian Watson |
43% |
| First TD: Javonte Williams |
18% |
| Long shot: Jake Ferguson |
25% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Cowboys touchdown pick: CeeDee Lamb
CeeDee Lamb is fourth in the NFL in targets, and only Jaxon Smith-Njigba has more catches than his 39 grabs through five weeks.
As Jason Logan points out in his preview, the script sets up Dak Prescott to throw often.
The Packers are short multiple players in the secondary, which is problematic for a defense that allows touchdowns on an eye-popping 80.95% of opposing red zone visits.
Lamb leads the Cowboys in red zone targets with six, turning half of them into touchdowns. Combine the script, his volume, and the backups he's likely facing, and this is a terrific spot to back him at this price.
I'm trading this to 51%.
Packers touchdown pick: Christian Watson
We've all seen what teams are doing to this injury-riddled Cowboys defense, and you could argue it should carry a parental warning.
Christian Watson has been targeted on 22.9% of plays where he runs a route, second most on the team behind Matthew Golden. Inside the 20, his target share—and productivity—increases significantly.
While his seven targets inside the 20 are one fewer than Golden's, he's converted five into catches and three into touchdowns. He's also become the go-to target in short yardage situations, with half the team's targets on pass plays inside the 10.
That's key against the Cowboys, who are allowing touchdowns on 70% of red zone visits.
Watson has scored in four of five games this season, and against this putrid Dallas defense, I'm beyond thrilled to get him at less than even money.
Trade this to 53%.
First touchdown scorer pick: Javonte Williams
Dallas RB Javonte Williams has scored his team's first touchdown in three of five games this season. He also scored the opening touchdown in two of the last three games, including last week's defeat to the Buccaneers.
As mentioned earlier, the Packers are getting destroyed when opponents breach the 20-yard line. Of their 11 red-zone touchdowns conceded, seven have come on the ground.
Williams has a 63% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown, but his first-touchdown market offers a bigger payout. I'd play it up to 23%%.
Long-shot touchdown pick: Jake Ferguson
Jake Ferguson has been targeted on only 21 of his 148 routes this season, fourth on the team.
But four of those targets have come inside the red zone, and three of those have turned into touchdowns.
The Packers have allowed two TE touchdowns this season, but the three teams whose tight ends didn't score against them have seen their tight ends combine for just three TD catches all season.
With so much focus on Lamb and George Pickens near the goal line, I'm trading this up to 30%.
Cowboys vs Packers touchdown combo
Christian Watson
Javonte Williams
CeeDee Lamb
With both Watson and Lamb below 50%, and Williams used inside the 20 so often, this is a strong combo play.
Whether he scores first or not, Williams will get plenty of carries and is likely to score for the fifth time in six games.
Both teams will look to throw the ball given how they're performing and the injury issues each defense has on the back end.
With a total sitting north of 52 points, scoring is expected. Given their usage rates, I'll be surprised if Watson and Lamb aren't involved at some point.
- TD picks: 0-4, -4.00 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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