Sunday Night Football in Week 6 features the Dallas Cowboys visiting the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, and we're analyzing the matchup through our Cowboys vs. Packers best bets.
Our experts have put together moneyline, spread, and total predictions, plus player props and touchdown angles for tonight's game.
Kickoff is set for Sunday, Oct. 18 at 8:20 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin (NBC), with the Packers favored by 1.5 points and the total sitting at 53.5.
Sunday Night Football predictions: Cowboys vs Packers
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Packers moneyline |
54% |
| Packers -1.5 |
51% |
 / Over 53.5 |
51% |
| Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards |
55% |
| Christian Watson 80+ receiving yards |
47% |
| Tucker Kraft anytime touchdown |
33% |
Probabilities courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Cowboys vs Packers?
Covers betting analyst Geoff Clark is backing Green Bay at home in his Cowboys vs. Packers moneyline pick.
Our prediction: Packers moneyline — Yes (54%)
"The Green Bay Packers have faced the toughest schedule of opposing defenses this season, based on EPA per play.
However, Packers quarterback Jordan Love got right against the Chicago Bears last week, and he now faces a Cowboys defense that ranks dead last in EPA per play and success rate, according to RBSDM.com.
With Love under center, Green Bay has scored at least 40 points in both of his career matchups against Dallas."
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Sunday Night Football spread prediction
Our prediction: Packers -1.5 — Yes (50%)
Chris Vasile also likes Green Bay in his NFL picks against the spread for Week 6.
"The Dallas Cowboys can score, but their defense has been one of the league's worst against the pass. That's a rough matchup against the Packers, especially with Jordan Love coming off a 367-yard, two-touchdown performance against Chicago.
Dallas also just allowed Tampa Bay to rush for 241 yards, so the Packers should have options regardless of how they attack. Dak Prescott can keep this competitive, but Green Bay has the better defensive matchup and gets Dallas at home. I’ll lay the short spread."
Sunday Night Football total prediction
Market lean: Over 53.5 — Yes (51%)
Covers senior betting analyst Jason Logan makes the Over his top pick in his Cowboys vs. Packers prediction.
"While this Over/Under has climbed since opening at 50.5, it still sits below a key stop of 54 points. With that in mind, 53.5 is as high as I'd go.
The Cowboys’ defensive woes are driving this market, and rightfully so. Dallas is dead last in several key metrics and ranks fourth in most explosive plays allowed.
The pass defense is notably soft and faces Packers air attack that flexed its downfield muscles in Week 5. Love has the Cheeseheads as the fourth-most explosive team entering Week 6.
However, the Cowboys' offense is not to be outdone. Dallas’ clearest path to victory is a shootout, and QB Dak Prescott headlines a top-five offense in both EPA per play and DVOA."
See Joe Osborne's Week 6 Over/Under predictions and totals combo for more analysis.
More Cowboys vs Packers picks from Covers
- Cowboys vs Packers Prediction, Picks & Odds: Sunday Night Football Week 6
- Cowboys vs Packers Moneyline Pick & Odds: Week 6
- NFL Picks Against the Spread for Every Week 6 Game
- NFL Week 6 Over/Under Predictions & Totals Combo
- NFL Anytime Touchdown Picks & TD Props: Week 6
- Expert NFL Prop Picks: Week 6
- Expert NFL Combo Picks: Week 6
- NFL AI Predictions: Week 6 ATS Picks & Projections
- NFL Moneyline Picks for Every Week 6 Game
Sunday Night Football player props
Passing prop: Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards — Yes (55%)
Logan also likes Prescott to top 275 passing yards.
"Given the growing Over/Under and Dallas' pass-positive game script as road underdogs, Dak Prescott will have plenty of opportunities to go Over his passing yard total on SNF.
Player projections aren’t overly bullish on Prescott, ranging from 260.5 to 275 yards in Week 6, but this matchup with the Packers lines up great for Dak.
New Green Bay defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon runs zone coverage almost exclusively, and Prescott is among the best QBs in the land at picking apart zones (No. 3 passer rating vs. zone), with two zone-busting WRs in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens."
Those star wideouts could face a Packers secondary short on bodies, with defensive backs Keisean Nixon and Benjamin St-Juste questionable and strong safety Evan Williams dealing with an illness."
Anytime touchdown prop: Christian Watson 80+ receiving yards — Yes (47%)
Shawn Krest is eyeing the Packers' Christian Watson to go off in his Cowboys vs. Packers prop picks.
"The Cowboys will be down at least one cornerback and maybe two. Cobie Durant has been ruled out with a hamstring problem, while Ameer Speed and Joey Porter Jr. are questionable.
That weakens a defense that's second-to-last in the NFL in yardage and a pass defense that ranks 21st.
Watson has been Love’s favorite target during a breakout season for the wideout. He’s topped 95 receiving yards in three of five games for the Packers this year.
Watson is averaging eight targets a week and more than five catches. The Cowboys' pass-rush win rate is 31st in the league, so Love will have time to find Watson."
Anytime touchdown prop: Tucker Kraft — Yes (33%)
Josh Inglis likes Kraft to score in his NFL anytime touchdown picks for Week 6.
"Tucker Kraft's production is rising alongside Green Bay's offense. He has 11 catches on 12 targets over the last two weeks, with four red-zone targets and a touchdown. He's priced longer to score than Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, but his fair price should be closer to 2.7x than the 3x available.
The Cowboys are one of eight defenses allowing 2+ passing TDs per game and rank dead last in EPA/dropback. None of the big three pass-catching options in this offense should be priced longer than 2.8x."
Cowboys vs Packers live markets explained
Kalshi event contracts can be bought and sold as the Cowboys vs. Packers game unfolds, meaning traders aren't necessarily locked into their original pregame position.
The probabilities will move throughout the game as the score, time remaining, possession, and game state change.
How do Cowboys vs Packers prediction markets work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where users trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, users trade event contracts based on simple Yes/No questions such as "Will the Packers beat the Cowboys?"
Contract prices reflect the market's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract trading at 23%, for example, indicates that the market is assigning that outcome roughly a 23% chance of occurring. If the prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1; if it is incorrect, it settles at $0.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
At a traditional sportsbook, bettors wager against prices established by the bookmaker. Kalshi instead operates as an exchange, with users trading event contracts against other market participants.
Another major difference is the ability to exit a position before an event is finished. If the probability of your Cowboys vs. Packers position increases during the game, you can sell the contract rather than waiting for the final result.
Why trade Cowboys vs Packers at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers several features that distinguish prediction markets from traditional pro football betting:
- Live flexibility: Contracts can be bought and sold as market probabilities change throughout the game.
- Probability-based pricing: Markets display the estimated likelihood of an outcome rather than traditional American odds.
- Transparency: Prices are driven by trading activity between market participants.
- Federal regulation: Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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