After Green Bay blew out its biggest rival last week, our Cowboys vs. Packers AI picks expect a much closer finish tonight when these teams renew their own rivalry on Sunday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:20 pm ET (NBC) from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.
Our model projects a 26-24 Packers win as part of our NFL AI predictions for Week 6, putting us on Green Bay -1.5 and Under 52.5. Below, we break down those picks, make our anytime touchdown selection, and compare our spread pick with the Covers projections and expert picks using markets from the best prediction market apps.
Cowboys vs Packers AI picks
Win probability courtesy of Kalshi at time of publish; odds may vary.
Cowboys vs Packers AI prediction
SUN · 8:20 pm ET · NBC
Win probability based on marketMore analysis
Green Bay has the passing game to make Dallas pay for another shaky defensive night. Jordan Love’s 367-yard performance against Chicago showed how quickly this offense can move when its receivers get room downfield. Against a Cowboys defense struggling to contain explosive plays, the Packers should have opportunities to score without needing a string of perfect possessions. Our 26-24 projection supports Green Bay -1.5, but only narrowly: a one-point win would not cover, and the half-point between our projected margin and the line leaves little room for error.
The Under is the tougher sell. Keisean Nixon is expected to play, but Benjamin St-Juste is out and Brandon Cisse is questionable, leaving Green Bay vulnerable against Dak Prescott’s receiving group. Jason Logan’s Cowboys vs. Packers prediction backs Over 53.5 for that reason. Our forecast lands at 50 points, so Under 52.5 allows a productive offensive game, but it needs some promising drives to end in field goals. Green Bay’s five takeaways against Chicago are also a poor baseline for this matchup; repeating that kind of short-field help could send the total past our number.
Cowboys vs Packers AI touchdown pick
Cowboys vs Packers picks comparison
Our AI model, the latest Covers projections, and Chris Vasile’s Week 6 picks against the spread all back Green Bay -1.5 as the home favorite tonight.
| AI model | Covers projections | Covers expertBy Chris Vasile |
|---|---|---|
| GB-1.5 | GB-1.5 | GB-1.5 |
The Covers projections have Green Bay winning 28.37-25.63, compared with our 26-24 forecast. Both support the Packers on the spread, but the Covers projected total of 54 points is higher than our projected total of 50. You can see our full Covers projections for the complete comparison.
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How our NFL AI predictions work
Our NFL AI predictions use a custom forecasting model built with GPT-6 Astra to project a final score for each matchup using historical scoring results and team-strength ratings. We review injuries and matchup news for the accompanying analysis.
The score forecasts are fixed before we compare them with the selected Kalshi spread and total to produce our ATS and Over/Under picks. Kalshi percentages are market quotes, separate from the score forecasts. Our touchdown pick is an AI-assisted editorial selection based on player usage and matchup research, not an output of the team-score model. We track results against the original selections and lines at time of publish.
We’ll continue updating the process as the season develops and publicly track every published score prediction, ATS pick, and Over/Under selection.
