The Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers renew their rivalry on Sunday Night Football, with kickoff set for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
My Cowboys vs. Packers moneyline pick backs Green Bay at home, where Jordan Love draws a dream matchup against the NFL's worst defense by EPA per play.
Throw in the home-field advantage at Lambeau Field, and the Packers have plenty working in their favor in this Week 6 clash.
Check out our Cowboys vs. Packers predictions and NFL picks for more analysis on Oct. 18.
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Cowboys vs Packers moneyline odds and pick
Cowboys
Packers — PickPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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The case for the Packers moneyline
According to my numbers, the Green Bay Packers are one point better than the Dallas Cowboys on a neutral field.
The Packers have superior differentials in yards per play, quarterback pressure rate, and early-down EPA per play. They also get at least a 2.0-point boost from playing at Lambeau Field.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys are 4-7 straight up (SU) as road underdogs since the start of last season.
The case for the Cowboys moneyline
Dallas' offense gives it a puncher's chance against any team in the league, especially a Green Bay squad still missing All-Pro pass-rusher Micah Parsons and now without starting linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, who suffered a season-ending injury.
The Cowboys rank fourth in offensive success rate and fifth in EPA per play, according to RBSDM.com.
Cowboys vs Packers moneyline pick & confidence level
Green Bay has faced the toughest schedule of opposing defenses this season, based on EPA per play.
However, Packers quarterback Jordan Love got right against the Chicago Bears last week, and he now faces a Cowboys defense that ranks dead last in EPA per play and success rate, according to RBSDM.com.
With Love under center, Green Bay has scored at least 40 points in both of his career matchups against Dallas.
Pick: Packers 54%
Confidence: 🔨 Strong
COVERS INTEL: Since hiring head coach Matt LaFleur in 2019, the Packers are 24-7 SU (77.4%) at home against teams below-.500, boasting a +7.7 scoring margin. Game overview
Date: Oct. 18, 2026
Time: 7:20 p.m. local time (8:20 p.m. ET)
Stadium: Lambeau Field, Green Bay
TV: NBC
Broadcast Team: Mike Tirico, Chris Collinsworth
What are prediction markets?
A prediction market allows you to buy and sell shares on the outcome of a future event. Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets. Most prediction market apps allow users to "buy an outcome" for between 1 cent and $1.
The $1.00 rule: The foundation of prediction markets
The difference between sportsbook and prediction market pricing isn't actually that difficult. In fact, you can make a compelling case that American odds are more challenging for beginners to understand than prediction markets and their $1.00 foundation.
Unlike a traditional bet where you wager a specific amount to win a profit, NFL prediction markets operate on a binary contract system.
- The Winning Side: Always settles at $1.00
- The Losing Side: Always settles at $0.00
The price of a "Yes" contract is directly related to the aggregate belief about the probability that the event will occur. For example, if a contract for the Chicago Bears to beat the Detroit Lions is trading at $0.51, the market believes they have a 51% chance of victory.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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