My kids will have me out of bed at 5:00 a.m. on Christmas morning, so there’s a real chance I’ll be fighting sleep during the Dallas Cowboys’ Christmas Day showdown with the Washington Commanders.
Fortunately, this Dallas offense is packed with explosive passing threats that should keep me alert, and it wouldn’t be surprising if receiver George Pickens delivers at least one highlight-reel play.
He’s the centerpiece of my top Cowboys vs. Commanders predictions and NFL picks for Christmas Day.
Cowboys vs Commanders prediction
Cowboys vs Commanders best bet: George Pickens longest reception Over 25.5 yards (-115)
This Washington Commanders pass defense is bad... like fruitcake bad.
Washington ranks near the bottom of the league in most defensive measurements, including explosive plays. The Commanders have given up 47 completions for 20+ yards and a dozen dingers of 40-plus.
One of those was a 44-yard direct strike from Dak Prescott to a streaking George Pickens down the sideline back in Week 7.
The Dallas Cowboys receiver is one of the top deep threats in the league. Pickens is third in receptions of 20-plus (21), fourth in catches of 30-plus (9), and fourth in receptions of 40 yards or more (4).
According to PFF, Pickens is also the top-ranked WR on the Cowboys against man coverage. He’ll face a lot of man schemes from the Commies, especially since head coach Dan Quinn (former Dallas DC) took over playcalling.
Pickens has posted a catch for 26+ yards in nine of his 15 games, including a 38-yard touchdown strike against a much tougher Chargers pass defense last Sunday.
He’s projected to have a big day, with some models as high as 95 receiving yards, and the bulk of those gains will come on one deep ball.
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Cowboys vs Commanders same-game parlay
There’s a good chance the Cowboys could be facing third-stringer Josh Johnson, with Marcus Mariota dealing with a hand injury on a short week.
Pickens is one of the best deep-ball threats in the NFL and already struck for a 44-yard catch against the Commies earlier this season.
CeeDee Lamb is just as dangerous as his fellow WR and scored a touchdown against Washington in Week 7.
Cowboys vs Commanders SGP
- Cowboys moneyline
- George Pickens longest reception Over 25.5 yards
- CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: C-Rod strikes!
Chris Rodriguez should be kept busy, considering the questions at QB for the Commies.
Cowboys vs Commanders SGP
- Cowboys moneyline
- George Pickens longest reception Over 25.5 yards
- CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown
- Chris Rodriguez Over 47.5 rushing yards
Cowboys vs Commanders game predictions
Cowboys vs Commanders moneyline prediction
Washington heads into Christmas Day with questions at QB.
Daniels is shut down for the season, and Mariota is questionable for Thursday due to a hand injury.
That leaves Johnson as the possible starter. Not good.
Cowboys vs Commanders spread prediction
This spread was as short as Dallas -5.5 earlier in the week, but the line jumped to a full touchdown after Mariota missed practice.
Even at the larger number, the Cowboys have the firepower to cover.
Cowboys vs Commanders Over/Under prediction
Dallas will need to do the lion’s share of the scoring on Christmas Day if Johnson is under center for the Commanders.
Prescott’s production tends to dip in outdoor games, and this is the Cowboys’ first open-air outing since Week 8. I’m leaning Under 50.5 points.
Cowboys vs Commanders odds
- Spread: Dallas -3 (-115) | Washington (-105)
- Moneyline: Dallas -170 | Washington +145
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)
Cowboys vs Commanders betting trend to know
Dallas is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when laying a touchdown or more against a divisional foe since 2020. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Commanders.
How to watch Cowboys vs Commanders
| Location | Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD |
| Date | Thursday, December 25, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Netflix |
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