Cowboys vs Chargers MNF Prop Bets: Herbert, Johnston Thrive in Moore's Gameplan

Prop bet #1: Lettin' it fly

When the Dallas Cowboys decided to move on from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, many felt the wrong man was thrown under the bus for the Cowboys' struggles. In his four years as coordinator, the Cowboys finished first in yards in 2019 and first in yards and scoring in 2021.

And even after McCarthy clearly meddled with the offensive philosophy last year by forcing more emphasis on the run (Dallas ranked sixth in early-down rush rate), Moore was still able to have the Cowboys finish fourth in scoring last year.

Despite all that, it was Moore and not McCarthy who was shown the door, and the latter even had this to say in the fallout: "Kellen wants to light up the damn scoreboard, I want to run the damn ball so I can rest my defense". 

With Moore landing on the Los Angeles Chargers this offseason and with a chance to really stick it to McCarthy, it's not far-fetched to believe that he'll lean heavily on the passing game in an attempt to show how valuable an efficient and explosive offense can be.

If we throw out last year's campaign during which McCarthy interfered, we can look at past iterations of Moore's offense to get an idea of the passing volume we should see. Dak Prescott went Over 36.5 passing attempts (Herbert's number this week) in 10 of 16 games in 2021 and in four of his five starts in 2020 before getting injured.

Justin Herbert prop: Over 36.5 passing attempts (-115 at PointsBet)

Prop bet #2: No quit in Quentin

The first-round rookie out of TCU has had a slow start to his 2023 campaign, racking up just six receptions for 44 yards in his first four games.

He's eclipsed a >50% snap share just once during that time (51% in Week 4), but between the season-ending injury to Mike Williams and the extra time during the bye, it's reasonable to believe Johnston will get more work and attention.

And after the Williams injury, the rest of the receiver room is rather thin and ripe for Johnston to seize the opportunity from: Joshua Palmer has been a relatively unimpressive NFL talent, Jaylen Guyton even more so, Simi Fehoko has been a practice squad staple since entering the league, and fellow rookie Derius Davis is essentially non-existent.

On top of that Quentin Johnston was profiled as an elite YAC prospect coming out in this last draft and the 49ers, the team who leans most heavily on YAC production, just gashed the Cowboys last week for 42 points with four touchdowns coming through the air.

Quentin Johnston prop: Over 30.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Prescott stays put

It's been no secret that after suffering his gruesome leg injury in 2020, Dak Prescott has become more and more of a pocket passer as opposed to being at least a viable threat to take off every once in a while.

In each of his first four seasons, he never posted a rushing yardage total lower than 277 but in his two full seasons since (2021 and 2022), he's yet to eclipse 200 once.

Last year, he averaged just 3.8 rushing attempts per game and this year through five games, he's averaging just 2.4. In fact, he has gone Under his 2.5 total for Monday in three of the five games so far — posting just one rush in each of those three games.

The Chargers are currently allowing the sixth-fewest rushing attempts per game to quarterbacks and the 10th-fewest yards per game. And things have been trending better as of late after two poor defensive efforts to start the season, with them containing Aidan O'Connell of the Raiders to three rushes for three yards and Kirk Cousins to one rush for 10 yards.

At worst, this is a true coinflip so to get upwards of +120 on Prescott's Under leaves a decent amount of value to chew on.

Dak Prescott prop: Under 2.5 rushing attempts (+120 at DraftKings)