George Pickens and the Dallas Cowboys put the best secondary in the business to the test when they climb the mountain for a matchup with the Denver Broncos in Week 8.
Pickens is thriving in his first year in Dallas, and even with fellow receiver CeeDee Lamb back in action, my Cowboys vs. Broncos predictions expect him to continue to shine.
Find out more in my NFL picks for October 26.
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Cowboys vs Broncos prediction
Cowboys vs Broncos Best bet: George Pickens Over 56.5 receiving yards (-114)
George Pickens’ receiving numbers were expected to take a hit once CeeDee Lamb returned from injury. The Dallas Cowboys’ big offseason addition posted monster stats in Lamb’s absence but still had a solid day against Washington last Sunday.
He hauled in four balls on six targets for 82 yards and just missed on some deeper throws to the end zone in a one-sided win for Dallas in Week 7.
Pickens and the Cowboys’ passing attack could have put up even more yards, but the offense went run-heavy in the second half to protect the lead.
Overall, Dallas throws on almost 61% of snaps (seventh highest passing play percentage), and given the likely game script in Denver, the Cowboys will be playing from behind and pressing the passing game.
The Denver Broncos are a step up in competition defensively for Dallas, especially this secondary. Denver’s passing defense sits Top 5 in many advanced metrics, with corners Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss headlining the defensive backfield.
The Broncos are very good at eliminating their foes’ top target, ranking fourth in defensive DVOA vs. WR1 at FTN. However, there is a letdown against WR2s, and as far as second options go, Pickens could be the best WR2 in the league right now.
Denver gave up 114 yards to Philadelphia WR2 DeVonta Smith, 89 yards to Chargers WR2 Quentin Johnston, and 51 yards to Colts WR2 Josh Downs already this season.
And, for as great as this Broncos’ defense is, Dak Prescott is just as big a jump in QB competition for Denver after taking on the likes of rookie Jaxson Dart, Justin Fields, and Jake Browning in recent weeks.
Dallas does a great job of moving Pickens around in the offense, with the beefy 6-foot-3 receiver able to exploit smaller defenders and head coach Brian Schottenheimer noting, “he’s almost impossible to cover on those 50/50 throws.”
The Broncos run man-to-man coverage almost exclusively, and Pickens enters Week 8 as Dallas’ best WR against man and 14th overall among all receivers in one-on-one coverage at PFF.
Week 8 player projections respect the Broncos’ secondary but don’t deny Pickens his, ranging from 57.6 yards to a ceiling closer to 70. The majority of those models come in at 64 yards or higher, sitting Over this current receiving total of 56.5 O/U.
Cowboys vs Broncos same-game parlay
Pickens is projected to have more than 60 yards through the air in Week 8, and Dallas will be throwing as it plays catch-up on the scoreboard.
Pickens just missed on another TD last week and has scored in all but two of his seven games this season.
Denver is wide awake after last week’s crazy comeback, and this defense is a step up for the Cowboys.
Cowboys vs Broncos SGP
- George Pickens Over 56.5 receiving yards
- George Pickens anytime touchdown
- Broncos moneyline
Our big-ticket SGP: Marvin's room
Marvin Mims caught six of seven balls his way last week and takes on a banged-up Dallas secondary allowing a ton of passing TDs.
Cowboys vs Broncos SGP
- George Pickens Over 56.5 receiving yards
- George Pickens anytime touchdown
- Broncos moneyline
- Marvin Mims anytime touchdown
Cowboys vs Broncos odds
- Spread: Cowboys +3.5 (-115) | Broncos -3.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Cowboys +146 | Broncos -174
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Cowboys vs Broncos trend to know
Since 2018, Dallas has gone 6-11 Over/Under in non-conference road games (65% Unders). Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Broncos.
How to watch Cowboys vs Broncos
| Location | Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO |
| Date | Sunday, October 12, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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