Dallas @ Denver Picks & Props

Marvin Mims gets his shot at this terrible Cowboys pass defense that could be missing three starters on Sunday. Mims caught six of seven balls his way for 85 yards vs. New York, including a 31-yard reception. He sits T-15th for yards after the catch among all WRs and the Cowboys are a terrible tackling team and give up the fourth most YAC on the season. Mims is also a home run threat, rating out as the Broncos’ best deep target (20+ yards). Dallas has allowed 24 passes of 20 or more yards and a league-worst eight for 20-plus yards. Projections sit as high as 40 yards on Sunday.

The Broncos are very good at eliminating their foes’ top target, owning the fourth best defensive DVOA versus WR1 at FTN. However, there is a letdown against WR2s and as far as second options go, Pickens could be the best WR2 in the league right now. The Broncos run man-to-man coverage almost exclusively and Pickens enters Week 8 as Dallas’ best WR versus man and 14th overall among all receivers in one-on-one coverage at PFF. Week 8 player projections respect the Broncos’ secondary but don’t deny Pickens his, ranging from 57.6 yards to a ceiling closer to 70 yards. The majority of those models come in at 64 yards or higher, sitting Over this current receiving total of 56.5 O/U.

I expected this number to open much shorter. Jake Ferguson has scored in four straight games, caught seven passes with CeeDee Lamb back in the lineup last week, and ranks second in the league in red-zone targets. The Dallas offense is humming, and Denver’s defense isn’t as strong as the market suggests. Ferguson closed at +160 last week and found the end zone twice. He also scored in Week 6 at +160 and had two more touchdowns in Week 5 at +145. Getting +230 here feels generous — I’d play it down to +170. Theo Johnson just went for 66 yards and a touchdown against the Broncos last week, and that was in a game where his team controlled the pace throughout.

This Broncos defense got a wake-up call against New York and despite allowing 32 points, this stop unit remains a Top 10 group in most advanced measurements. Denver is by far the best defense Dallas has faced in a while. The Broncos pass rush poses the biggest threat to this Cowboys attack. Dallas has relied on deeper strikes to keep the chains moving, but Denver tops the NFL in pressure rate and sacks. That pass rush won’t give Dak Prescott the time needed for home run plays to develop. We’ll see Dallas lean more on the ground game and short-hitting throws to alleviate that pressure. This Denver secondary is among the best in the land, limiting foes to just 17 passing plays of 20-plus yards and lowest success rate per dropback in the NFL. The Broncos offense isn’t the most explosive attack. Bo Nix boasts the seventh fewest intended air yards per attempt and the Broncos sit in the bottom third in terms of yards per play.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. The Cowboys rank as the 10th-most pass-centric offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 60.3% red zone pass rate.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 134.6 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.. Javonte Williams's 82.6% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates an impressive progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 78.0% figure.

The model projects the Broncos to be the 6th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 59.9% red zone pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 134.6 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.. The Denver Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year.. The Broncos offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 134.6 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.. The Denver Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year.. The Broncos offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-highest clip in football versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year (78.3% Adjusted Completion%).

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 134.6 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.. The Denver Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year.. The Broncos offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.. This year, the weak Cowboys defense has surrendered a monstrous 54.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the most in the league.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 61.4% of their plays: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 134.6 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.. The predictive model expects Jake Ferguson to garner 8.3 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among TEs.. Jake Ferguson has been much more involved in his team's air attack this season (23.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (16.6%).

CeeDee Lamb's 52.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 61.8.. The Cowboys offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.. CeeDee Lamb's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates an impressive drop-off in his efficiency in space over last year's 4.7% mark.. The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 113.0) versus wide receivers this year.. The Broncos pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus WRs this year, surrendering 6.45 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in the league.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 134.6 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.. The Denver Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game.. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year.. The predictive model expects Courtland Sutton to accrue 7.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. The Broncos offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.

A running game script is implied by the Broncos being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 134.6 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.. The Denver Broncos have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 60.3 plays per game.. This year, the anemic Dallas Cowboys run defense has given up a monstrous 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 4th-most in the league.. The Dallas Cowboys linebackers rank as the worst group of LBs in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The projections expect the Broncos to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 37.4% run rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see 134.6 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.