It’s an NFC East showdown at AT&T Stadium in Week 7, with the Washington Commanders visiting the Dallas Cowboys.
Both teams are coming off disappointing losses as the betting favorite, and my early Commanders vs. Cowboys predictions are calling for a high-scoring tilt in The Lone Star State.
Read more in my NFL picks for Sunday, October 19.
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Commanders vs Cowboys predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Commanders vs Cowboys spread pick: Commanders -1.5
The Dallas Cowboys own a basement-dwelling defense in PFF grade (32nd) and DVOA (31st), while allowing the third-most yards and highest EPA per play.
You should have no confidence in head coach Brian Schottenheimer and defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus turning it around, either.
I’m happy to lay the points with the Washington Commanders and quarterback Jayden Daniels, and it helps that Washington's defense has at least shown a pulse.
Washington checks in at 18th in PFF defensive grade and 14th in defensive DVOA, which, while not chart-topping, is still considerably better than Dallas.
I also value the Commanders' ranking ninth in pass block win rate and second in run block win rate, and expect Washington to win the trench battle on offense to further capitalize on the susceptible Dallas defense.
The Commanders will be able to move the ball at will and generate explosive plays, while also generating more stops on defense to pull away from Dallas in this Week 7 divisional matchup.
Early Commanders vs Cowboys total pick: Over 54.5
Interestingly, and frustratingly for Dallas bettors and fans, the Cowboys' offense has performed as well as the defense has faltered.
Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott has been next to flawless, and the Cowboys have put up a third-ranked 29.7 points per game while averaging the fourth-most yards and highest EPA per play. It’s translated into a fifth-ranked PFF offense grade and seventh-ranked offensive DVOA.
Washington has been solid, too. The Commanders average 26.3 points per game while being seventh in yards and eighth in EPA per play, with respective 11th and ninth ranks in PFF grade and DVOA.
These are two capable offenses with quarterbacks playing at an elite level, so expect no shortage of points.
Commanders vs Cowboys odds
- Commanders vs. Cowboys spread: Commanders -2.5
- Commanders vs. Cowboys moneyline: Commanders -130, Cowboys +110
- Commanders vs. Cowboys Over/Under: 48.5
How to watch Commanders vs Cowboys
- Commanders vs. Cowboys matchup
- Date: Sunday, October 19, 2025, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Arlington, TX
- Venue: AT&T Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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