The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres square off in a pivotal Game 5 at KeyBank Center on Thursday, May 13.
My Canadiens vs. Sabres predictions and NHL picks lean toward a high-scoring contest in Buffalo.
- UPDATE: Added who will win prediction & goal scorer pick.
Canadiens vs Sabres Game 5 prediction
Who will win Canadiens vs Sabres Game 5?
Buffalo Sabres: The Sabres received a huge goaltending boost from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to take Game 4, and I fully expect bounces to start going their way on home ice in Game 5. Buffalo has generated 17.77 expected goals at the KeyBank Center across five home games and only scored 12 times, after all.
Canadiens vs Sabres best bet: Over 5.5 (-125)
The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres scored six or more goals in the first three games of Round 2, and I’m anticipating the increased workload continuing to catch up with Habs No. 1 Jakub Dobes.
He’s started 12 consecutive games dating back to the regular season, and his previous high was four straight starts. Dobes sporting a ho-hum .895 SV% in Round 2 after posting a .923 mark in the opening round reinforces the mileage is taking a toll.
Additionally, Sabres starter Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen posted a .909 SV% with 0.311 goals saved above expected (GSAx) per 60 minutes during the regular season, so I’m anticipating his play to also dip after turning away 28 of 30 shots with 1.62 GSAx in Game 4.
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Canadiens vs Sabres Game 5 same-game parlay
Montreal turning to Jake Evans between Ivan Demidov and Alex Newhook has paid off, with the trio pacing the Habs in Corsi For percentage and expected goals at 5-on-5 — combining for 12 points in the series. Demidov and Newhook have also both individually marked the scoresheet in three of the four Round 2 games.
Canadiens vs Sabres SGP
- Over 5.5
- Ivan Demidov Over 0.5 points
- Alex Newhook Over 0.5 points
Canadiens vs Sabres Game 5 goal scorer pick
Alex Tuch (+195)
Buffalo winger Alex Tuch was dangerous again in Game 4 without finding the back of the net, and he’s now up to 2.06 expected goals, six high-danger scoring chances and 15 shots without a goal in the series. The back-to-back 30-goals scorer skates with the top line and No. 1 power-play unit, too, so the opportunities will continue to present themselves for Tuch to finally cash in.
Canadiens vs Sabres odds for Game 5
- Moneyline: Montreal -105 | Buffalo -115
- Puck Line: Montreal +1.5 (-250) | Buffalo -1.5 (+205)
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-125) | Under 5.5 (+105)
Canadiens vs Sabres trend
The Buffalo Sabres have covered the puck line in 10 of their last 15 games (+7.55 Units / 33% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Canadiens vs. Sabres.
How to watch Canadiens vs Sabres Game 5
| Location | KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY |
| Date | Thursday, May 14, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, TNT |
Canadiens vs Sabres latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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