C.J. Stroud Odds and Props: Passing Struggles

The Houston Texans playoff hopes are riding on winning this road divisional matchup behind their rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud. Their season finale will be a Saturday night matchup on the road in Indianapolis, IN against the Indianapolis Colts. 

The Texans are slight favorites in the Week 18 NFL odds and will be looking to win the battle of AFC South rivals with a playoff spot on the line for the winner. 

We take a closer look at the C.J. Stroud odds and give our best free NFL picks for Texans vs. Colts on January 6.

Be sure to keep up to date on the NFL odds and check out our Texans vs. Colts predictions, along with our Texans vs. Colts props.

C.J. Stroud prop picks

• Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115 at DraftKings) 25% boost available
• Under 1.5 passing touchdowns + Nico Collins Over 5.5 receptions + Colts +3.5 (+369 at FanDuel)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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C.J. Stroud prop pick

Under 1.5 pass TDs (-110)

When these two AFC South division rivals met back in Week 2, C.J. Stroud was 30/47 passing for 384 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. In that game, he had to play catchup for most of the game after falling 14-0 early in the first quarter and then 31-10 in the third quarter. I would expect a closer game this time around. 

Stroud missed two games recently with an injury but returned last week with a solid performance against the Tennessee Titans throwing for 213 yards and a touchdown on 24/32 passes and no interceptions. However, both of those games mentioned were at home and now he must play the most meaningful road game of his early career. 

In his five road games where he did not get injured and played the entire game this year, Stroud averaged 21.4 completions on 34.4 attempts for 253.4 yards and 0.8 touchdowns. That is quite the drop-off from his season average of 274.6 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game. The Indianapolis Colts defense is also much better at home than they are on the road. 

In eight home games this season, the Colts have only allowed 239.5 passing yards per contest. The Colts also rank sixth in passing touchdowns allowed with 19 on the season. In their eight home games, they have only allowed 10 passing touchdowns. 

Another issue going against Stroud in this game is the injuries in the wide receiver room. Noah Brown has already been ruled out and Robert Woods is unlikely to play with no practices this week. With Tank Dell also out from an earlier injury, that leaves just Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz as the only targets for Stroud with more than 30 targets on the season. 

With so much focus on Collins and Schultz from the Colts' defense, the redzone plays will likely be a little more run-heavy from the Houston Texans. Especially since the Colts defense is much weaker against the run than against the pass. It is unlikely we will see multiple passing touchdowns from Stroud here on the road as a rookie in a virtual playoff game. 

Prop: Under 1.5 pass TDs (-115 at DraftKings) 25% boost available

C.J. Stroud same-game parlay

C.J. Stroud Under 1.5 pass TDs

Nico Collins Over 5.5 receptions

Colts +3.5

+369 at FanDuel

There are a couple of plays I like in this game to combine with our best bet for a nice parlay.

While I talked about how good the Colts' pass defense is in preventing touchdowns, they have been susceptible to allowing big yardage to top wideouts. Davante Adams had 13 catches for 126 yards last week against the Colts and I like Collins to have a similarly heavily targeted game in this one. We will add his reception total Over. 

Finally, we will add the Colts to cover an alternate spread. The Colts have dominated this series over time. Indy is 7-2-1 straight-up and 7-3 against the spread in the last 10 meetings. With a strong pass defense and a good home record, I believe the Colts will do no worse than a 3-point loss.

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