Two Super Bowl hopefuls will look to get back to .500 on Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens in a surprisingly important Week 4 clash.
The Ravens have had little trouble on offense, and I like Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry to both put up big numbers on Sunday. I also like Kansas City receiver Marquise Brown to continue his hot start in my Ravens vs. Chiefs predictions.
Let’s take a deeper look at the best NFL player props for today's game.
Chiefs vs Ravens props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Lamar Jackson |
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns | -132 |
| Derrick Henry |
Over 85.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Marquise Brown |
Over 39.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Prop bet #1: Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Lamar Jackson has been a part of the MVP conversation in each of the past two seasons — winning once — and all signs are that this will be the case again in 2025. Jackson has a 141.8 passer rating to start the year and has thrown nine touchdown passes in three games while completing 72% of his throws.
There hasn’t yet been a team to keep Jackson under two touchdown passes this year, and he’s thrown for 3+ scores in each of his last two games. Heading back into last season, he also threw for multiple touchdowns in each of his last six outings and in 10 of his last 11 games to finish 2024.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been stout defensively so far this season, allowing just 18.7 ppg, but opposing passers are completing 65.9% of their passes and averaging 6.2 yards per attempt, both middling numbers that won’t put fear in Jackson’s heart. Even if we’re paying a slight premium, it’s worth taking Jackson to throw for at least two scores today.
Prop bet #2: Derrick Henry Over 85.5 rushing yards
Derrick Henry began his 2025 campaign with a sterling 169-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Bills, but it’s been slow going for Henry since, as he has totaled just 73 yards and one score in his last two games.
Head coach John Harbaugh will be looking to reverse that trend. Yes, Henry has fumbled three times this season, losing two of those, but it’s going to take far more than that for the Baltimore Ravens to lose confidence in Henry, who remains one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL.
Henry has had relatively little usage in the past two weeks, taking a total of just 23 carries over those two games. He showed he can still break big runs against the Lions last week, hitting them for 28 yards on his best run of the night.
With Henry making it clear that he’s dissatisfied with his fumbles and overall play, I’m looking for a bounceback performance on Sunday.
Prop bet #3: Marquise Brown Over 39.5 receiving yards
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is enjoying his best start to a season in several years. He leads the Chiefs in receptions (19), targets (27), and yards (171). He may not have found the endzone yet, but he’s clearly become a comfortable target for Patrick Mahomes.
Some of that production is due to the loss of Xavier Worthy, who suffered a shoulder injury early in Week 1 and hasn’t yet caught a pass this year. With Worthy back in the lineup for the matchup against the Ravens, it only makes sense that Brown’s targets will go down.
However, things won’t dramatically change overnight. Brown’s production has undoubtedly earned him some confidence with both Mahomes and this Chiefs coaching staff, and he should get his number called at least a few times against Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed opponents to average 266 yards passing per game, so there should be plenty to go around among the KC receiving corps.
Oddsmakers have given Brown a very low receiving total in expectation of Worthy taking all his catches. The adjustment is too big to justify, however — the Over is the smart play on Brown.
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