When it comes to betting Kansas City Chiefs games, checking the attendance status of Taylor Swift is right up there with scanning the injury report and watching the weather.
As of this writing, there’s no official word on whether Travis Kelce’s gal pal will make her way to Wisconsin tonight when Kansas City visits the Green Bay Packers in Week 13 odds.
Whelp, I guess we’re stuck with the old tried-and-true handicapping process then. Ho hum.
The Chiefs are trying to maintain momentum after splitting wins and losses in the past four outings, while Green Bay is out to prove its recent success is no fluke, after winning three of its last four.
Make sure to also check out our Patrick Mahomes spotlight picks before placing your wagers!
Chiefs vs Packers odds
Chiefs vs Packers predictions
Jordan Love has been on an up-and-down ride in 2023.
It wasn’t until recently that the Green Bay Packers QB showed signs of life. Love has put forth some solid numbers in his last four games, watching his completion rate, yards per attempt, and passer rating increase.
“I feel like it’s just comfort, being comfortable in the pocket,” Love told the media about his improved production. “Getting more reps, being comfortable with my reads, understanding what the defense is doing, where I need to go with the ball, and just growing and learning (from) every rep I get and obviously learning from mistakes, learning from the good plays.”
For the most part, Love has been comfortable in those three most recent wins and why wouldn’t he? Green Bay was able to defeat Detroit and the two L.A. teams, who rank in the back third of the league in pass defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense, on the other hand, is known for making opposing QBs “uncomfortable”.
Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo creates chaos with a mix of blitz looks, bringing extra pass rushers at the sixth-highest clip which is generating the second-highest pressure rate and 37 sacks on the year.
Opposing QBs complete less than 62% of their attempts and are averaging only 176.6 passing yards against KC this season.
As for Love, he’s rating out well against the blitz, according to PFF (76.9), but he’s completing only 59% of his passes for an average of just 6.5 yards when facing extra pass rushers. Essentially, he's avoided big mistakes by throwing to check downs for little to no gain.
Love struggled against other blitz-happy defenses this season. He finished 24 for 41 with 229 yards with an interception against Minnesota, was 20 for 40 with 289 yards and two interceptions against Pittsburgh, and went 21 for 31 with 180 yards and a pick versus Denver.
His Week 13 player projections offer contrasting opinions, with a handful of models forecasting a 230-plus performance and just as many calling for a sub-200-yard night. My number comes out just shy of 216 yards from Love.
His passing yards prop for Sunday Night Football sits at 227.5 yards Over/Under — a bar he’s topped in each of his last five appearances.
That said, his passing prop versus Detroit – which has been one of the worst passing defenses in the second half of the season — was 230.5 yards and that Thursday game was played indoors on the fast track of Ford Field.
This week, Love comes back to Lambeau (where he averages only 6.9 yards per attempt) for a freezing Sunday nighter against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL... and his passing yard total has dipped just three yards from last week.
Nope. Not buying it.
My best bet: Jordan Love Under 227.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Chiefs vs Packers same-game parlay
The Chiefs are not only a big step up in defensive opposition, but Patrick Mahomes is by far the best QB the Packers have played all season. FYI: KC is not a great ATS bet as a big road fave, so we’re playing it safe with the moneyline.
This total is puffed up due to the Packers offensive uptick. Kansas City is a quality defense and for what it’s worth, Green Bay has held its ground inside the red zone (No. 8 in TD% allowed).
Love will feel the heat from Spagnuolo’s schemes and won’t find the same rhythm he‘s had in recent wins.
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Chiefs vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis
The look-ahead line for this non-conference clash was Kansas City -7 before the Packers picked up a big Thanksgiving Thursday victory at Detroit. Following the Chiefs comeback win against Las Vegas on the weekend, the official Week 13 opener hit the board at KC -6.5.
That spread stayed put for the first few days of action but dropped to Chiefs -5.5 at many books on Wednesday and you can either lay -5.5 with the visitor or get the Cheeseheads +6. Covers Consensus is showing 64% of picks on Kansas City as of Thursday afternoon.
We’ve witnessed a turnaround for this Packers attack in recent games, with Green Bay finally putting up points and going 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four games. The Packers scored 29 points in the win over Detroit, posted 23 in the victory over the L.A. Chargers, and scored 20 in a one-sided win over the L.A. Rams.
Green Bay sits No. 7 in EPA per play since Week 9 – a vast improvement on their rating of 15th in the eight weeks prior – but did manage that offensive adjustment against some softer defenses.
The Packers bested the Rams, Chargers, and Lions, all of which sit 18th or worse in EPA allowed per play on the year. Kansas City, on the other hand, ranks No. 5 in this advanced metric and is a step up in competition on both sides of the ball.
The Chiefs have become one of the better two-way teams in the NFL this season, with the stop unit stepping up on par with the potent passing attack of Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City is among a handful of the NFL elite that sit inside the Top 10 in DVOA for both offense and defense.
Sunday night’s Over/Under total opened as low as 41.5 and has climbed to 42.5 O/U, with Covers Consensus showing 66% of picks on the Over.
The Chiefs offense isn’t as high-powered as past seasons, which has led to a 3-8 Over/Under record on the season. Kansas City can still put up points in a hurry – as it showed by digging out of a 14-0 hole versus Las Vegas last Sunday – but is averaging 23.3 points per game in 2023.
The Packers’ newfound offensive success will be put to the test, as will Green Bay’s defense. The Cheeseheads rank middle of the pack overall this season, with the bolts tightening since Week 9 (sitting No. 11 in EPA allowed per play). Green Bay is 5-6 O/U overall with a 1-4 O/U count inside Lambeau Field.
The Wisconsin winter will chill game-time temperatures to a “feels like” range of 25 degrees on Sunday night. Snow is in the forecast for earlier in the day but is expected to pass before the 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.
Chiefs vs Packers betting trend to know
Kansas City is 13-1 SU but just 6-8 ATS as a road favorite of six points or more since 2020. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Packers.
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Chiefs vs Packers game info
|Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
|Sunday, December 3, 2023
|8:20 p.m. ET
|Packers +7, 41.5 O/U
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