Chargers vs Falcons Week 9 Picks and Predictions: Atlanta is Undervalued at Home Against Injury-Riddled Bolts

Atlanta has been the darlings of the betting world and should have an easy time blossoming offensively against a lousy Los Angeles defense in Week 9 on Sunday. Find out more in our Falcons vs. Chargers betting picks.

Nov 6, 2022 • 08:07 ET • 4 min read
Marcus Mariota Atlanta Falcons NFL
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Week 9 of the NFL season is already here, and we have a terrific non-conference matchup between the 4-3 Los Angeles Chargers and 4-4 Atlanta Falcons.

Los Angeles enters this contest coming off a bye week. Meanwhile, Atlanta won a wild home matchup over Carolina in overtime in Week 8.

Who will win on Sunday? Find out in our free NFL football picks and predictions for Chargers vs. Falcons on November 6.

Chargers vs Falcons best odds

Chargers vs Falcons picks and predictions

The Atlanta Falcons are +3 home underdogs, and my best bet is for Atlanta to cover the spread. With a little bit of luck, the Falcons would be 7-1-0 against the spread, but PJ Walker and some bad coverage had other ideas.

Quarterback Marcus Mariota is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 259 yards with three scoring strikes and a pair of picks in their OT win over Carolina last week. Tight end Kyle Pitts caught his second touchdown pass of the season, and wideouts Drake London and Olamide Zaccheaus have been surprisingly productive.

The Falcons may receive a boost if swiss army knife Cordarrelle Patterson returns from injury, but RB Tyler Allgeier has picked up the slack for a Falcons offense scoring 82 points over their last three contests.

The Los Angeles Chargers' defense allows three TDs per game, and their injury-riddled offense can’t make up the difference. The rushing defense allows 137 yards, and they haven't fared much better against the pass. QB Justin Herbert has been without Keenan Allen for most of the season, and now WR Mike Williams is out. 

The Chargers' offensive line has been solid but will get tested by a Falcons' defense with a dozen sacks. The Atlanta defense has been lousy but has also been banged up. The Falcons should find things easier without Allen and Williams, and acquiring veteran CB Rashad Fenton will be a big boost to a secondary allowing 318 passing yards per game.

The Falcons should be able to cover the spread. The offense is starting to come together, and they can put points on the board against the injury-riddled Chargers defense. Pitts has become more involved, and as long as Mariota can dodge the Los Angeles pass rush, the chains will move. 

The Falcons have allowed 93 points over their past three, and while I expect the Chargers to score their share of points, I believe the Atlanta defense keeps this close and its offense produces enough to cover the spread.

My best bet: Falcons +3 (-105 at Bet99)

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Chargers vs Falcons spread analysis

We’ve already gone through the main reasons the Falcons to cover is my best bet, but here are some additional notes for you to consider. I would love to play the Falcons +140 on the moneyline against this Chargers team and am currently leaning that way. The Chargers have numerous injury concerns on both sides of the ball and missing two playmakers.

If Patterson plays and Allen misses, all systems go on the Falcons. Atlanta WR Dameire Byrd has grabbed four balls for 142 yards and a pair of scoring strikes. He has a great opportunity Sunday against a Chargers defense that's allowing nearly two TD receptions per contest. 

Expect that trend to continue Sunday, as Los Angeles is 4-3-0 ATS and 3-0-0 ATS as the away team. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 6-2-0 ATS and 3-1-0 ATS at home. 

Chargers vs Falcons Over/Under analysis

The total is 49.5, and I’m leaning toward the Over for this tilt. These teams allow too many points and have numerous injuries to key defensive personnel.

It isn’t hard to imagine this game finishing with 50 points or more. Both teams allow a third-worst three TDs per contest, and only Las Vegas and Detroit allow more, so this could come down to a shootout on Sunday.

The Over is 4-3-0 through the Chargers' last five and 4-3-0 this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta has finished Over the total in five of its last eight games and 2-3-0 over its past five.

Chargers vs Falcons betting trend to know

The Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Falcons.

Chargers vs Falcons game info

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Date: Sunday, November 6, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Falcons +3, 48.5 O/U

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