The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) visit the Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at AT&T Stadium tonight, with starting quarterback Baker Mayfield sidelined by a thumb injury and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels making his second straight start.
The Buccaneers vs. Cowboys smart money from trusted traders at Kalshi, one of our best prediction market apps, is heavily siding with the visitors, despite the Cowboys carrying a 79% win probability (79 cents).
Let's dive into where the money is going on tonight's NFL picks. Our Joe Osborne previews his Buccaneers vs. Cowboys prediction to help with expert analysis.
- Quick facts: The Cowboys are favored by 9.5 points with an Over/Under of 48.5 tonight at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Kalshi traders are giving the Cowboys a 79% win probability against a 0-4 Tampa Bay team
Buccaneers vs Cowboys smart money at Kalshi
What smart money tells us
Kalshi traders have the Cowboys at a 79% win probability and the Buccaneers at 21% in the Buccaneers vs. Cowboys game market. The 48.5-point Over/Under sits at 50% on the Over, per the NFL Week 5 odds.
The tension tonight is public money against sharp money. Of the nearly $13 million in total trading volume, 79% is on the Cowboys. However, four of seven tracked traders are backing the Bucs, with over 80% of the "smart money" coming in on the visitors.
Dallas’ defense ranks dead last in yards allowed per play, 31st on third down and in explosive play rate allowed, and 27th in the red zone. It is, quite simply, the perfect Over team.
While it's fair to be nervous about this Tampa Bay offense contributing, keep in mind C.J. Stroud just had one of the best games of his career against this Dallas defense. Play the Over up to 49.5. — Joe Osborne
Our Jason Logan also has three Buccaneers vs. Cowboys player props for tonight that could help cash the Over, and Kyle LaRusic looks at anytime touchdown picks.
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Context: A high-powered offense against a backup quarterback
- Buccaneers at 0-4: Tampa Bay is winless, and Daniels managed just two scoring drives in his first start, a loss to Green Bay
- Cowboys at 2-2: Dallas is coming off a 34-30 comeback win at Houston, with CeeDee Lamb piling up 17 catches for 189 yards and a score
- Defense: Tampa Bay's defense has been better than its record, ranking among the league leaders in EPA per play allowed. Cowboys games at AT&T Stadium have gone Over at a 33-17-1 clip since 2020
- Injuries: Tampa's Antoine Winfield Jr., Benjamin Morrison, SirVocea Dennis; Dallas' Drew Shelton, DeMarvion Overshown, Cobie Durant
More Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Coverage
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- Buccaneers vs Cowboys AI Predictions for TNF: Week 5 ATS Pick & TD Projection
Buccaneers vs Cowboys odds at Kalshi
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Dallas Cowboys
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