Our Buccaneers vs. Cowboys computer picks highlight eight player props for Thursday Night Football, with our Covers prop projections uncovering value across the passing, rushing, receiving, and touchdown markets.
Check out our latest NFL picks and Buccaneers vs. Cowboys predictions below.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys computer picks
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 Buccaneers |
 Cowboys |
|---|---|
| Daniels o174.5 passing yards 57% |
Prescott u274.5 passing yards 56% |
| Irving o14.5 receiving yards 48% |
Lamb o79.5 receiving yards 56% |
| Egbuka o3.5 receptions made 44% |
Williams u2.5 receptions made 51% |
| Otton o24.5 receiving yards 61% |
Prescott o22.5 passing completions 63% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Buccaneers computer picks
Jalon Daniels Over 174.5 passing yards
Projection: 201.69 passing yards
The Dallas Cowboys’ defense has allowed opposing QBs to complete passes at the highest rate in the NFL since the start of last season, posting a league-worst 76.1% Adjusted Completion%.
With Dallas also expected to generate a favorable passing-game environment, Jalon Daniels should have a strong opportunity to find success through the air.
That combination of efficiency and projected passing volume makes Daniels Over 174.5 passing yards an appealing angle tonight.
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Bucky Irving Over 14.5 receiving yards
Projection: 18.32 receiving yards
The Cowboys have struggled to defend running backs through the air since the start of last season, allowing 7.71 adjusted yards per target to the position — the most in the league.
Dallas’ safeties also project as the 8th-worst safety corps in the NFL in pass coverage this season.
That sets up a favorable matchup for Bucky Irving to clear 14.5 receiving yards tonight.
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Emeka Egbuka Over 3.5 receptions made
Projection: 3.50 PUSH receptions
The Cowboys’ pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL to wide receivers this season at 68.9%.
Dallas’ cornerback unit has also been one of the league’s worst in coverage, ranking 8th-worst in the NFL.
With the matchup favoring consistent completions to wideouts, Emeka Egbuka is in a strong spot to clear 3.5 receptions tonight.
Cade Otton Over 24.5 receiving yards
Projection: 34.64 yards
Cade Otton is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 86th percentile among tight ends in targets, with 5.8 expected tonight.
After averaging 24.0 air yards per game last season, Otton has taken a significant step forward this year, now averaging 35.0 air yards per game.
His 38.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating) is also well above last season’s 29.0, highlighting the increased quality of his offensive usage.
The combination of volume and downfield opportunity gives Otton a strong path to clear 24.5 receiving yards tonight.
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Cowboys computer picks
Dak Prescott Under 274.5 passing yards
Projection: 269.42 yards
The Cowboys are an enormous 8-point favorite in this game, pointing toward a favorable rushing script and less need for Dak Prescott to air it out.
Based on the game dynamics and underlying traits of each team, our trusted projection set expects just 126.0 offensive plays in this contest — the 5th-lowest total among all games this week.
The combination of a positive game script and limited overall play volume creates a difficult path for Prescott to reach 275 passing yards.
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CeeDee Lamb Over 79.5 receiving yards
Projection: 82.27 receiving yards
In this week's game, CeeDee Lamb is projected by our projection model to rank in the 96th percentile among WRs with 9.5 expected targets.
Lamb's 32.1% Target Share this season represents a significant increase from last season's 25.6%, highlighting his expanded role in the passing game.
His 126.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season also marks a massive jump from his 73.0 average last year.
With elite projected volume and a dramatically increased role, Lamb has a strong path to clear 79.5 receiving yards tonight.
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Javonte Williams Under 2.5 receptions made
Projection: 2.37 receptions
Javonte Williams is projected by the projection model to rank in a lower percentile among RBs in expected targets, limiting his opportunity through the air.
Williams' target share this season has not been strong enough to consistently generate a high reception total, keeping his projected reception volume modest.
With limited expected passing-game involvement, Williams faces a difficult path to reaching 3 receptions, making Under 2.5 receptions an appealing angle tonight.
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Dak Prescott Over 22.5 passing completions
Projection: 23.57 passing completions
The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week, with a 59.4% projected pass rate based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Prescott has attempted 39.2 passes per game this season, ranking in the 82nd percentile among quarterbacks.
Dallas' offensive line also grades out as the 8th-best unit in the NFL in pass protection, creating a strong environment for Prescott to sustain passing volume.
Prescott's accuracy has improved as well, with his Adjusted Completion% climbing from 66.8% last season to 69.8% this year.
The combination of heavy projected pass volume, strong protection, and improved accuracy gives Prescott a strong path to exceed 22.5 completions tonight.
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