A game featuring a 13-point spread and a man named Chris Oladokun as the likely starting quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the Denver Broncos isn’t what we were expecting for the NFL Christmas Day finale, but the matchup presents some great betting opportunities.
K.C. will be looking to play spoiler at home, and my early Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions expect the defenses to shine.
Check out my early NFL picks for Thursday, December 25.
Broncos vs Chiefs predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early TNF spread pick: Chiefs +13
Much has been made about the dynasty being dead, and that might very well be true. But I think we can expect a great effort, especially from Kansas City Chiefs’ defense, when you consider the game situation.
This is no ordinary game that’s being buried on a Sunday afternoon. It’s the Chiefs’ last home game of the season vs. a divisional rival, on Christmas night, with the team coming off a very embarrassing loss at the hands of the pitiful Tennessee Titans.
While I won’t try to talk you into Chris Oladokun being anything other than average, at best, I think we should expect this Kansas City defense to have its foot on the gas.
This defensive unit has been great at home all season. They’re allowing just 15 points per game at Arrowhead Stadium, while ranking near the top of the league in many other important categories. This includes matchups where they’ve shutdown respectable offenses, holding the likes of the Lions, Colts, and Chargers to 20 points or fewer.
The other part of the equation is the Denver Broncos offense dropping off on the road, where they average close to five fewer points per game compared to at home, and are relatively “mid” in many other difference-making statistics.
Ultimately, this sets up as a spot where Kansas City’s defense carries the load, bringing urgency and physicality in a high-leverage home finale.
Early TNF total pick: Under 36.5
As outlined above, I expect a bounce-back from the Kansas City defense after an extremely weak effort against the Titans. Unfortunately for them, even a max effort from their offense won’t lead to many points.
Even with Patrick Mahomes, this Chiefs offense wasn’t impressive. With Gardiner Minshew, they were flat-out pathetic, and now another drop-off could be in store with Oladokun in at quarterback.
Oladokun looked decent filling in for Minshew in Week 16, but this is an extreme step up in competition against a Broncos defense who’ll also be looking to bounce back after a poor performance.
Denver allowed a season-high 34 points at home to the Jaguars last week, which is extremely out-of-character for them considering they’ve held eight sperate opponents to fewer than 20 points this season. That includes holding the Mahomes-led Chiefs to 19 points back on November 16.
With everything at stake for the Broncos, I fully expect their defense to be in bully mode with Oladokun at the helm. Denver’s defense is elite in several key areas, which should limit scoring opportunities and halt drives from this watered-down Chiefs offense.
And if you’re scared of this short number of 36.5, keep in mind that three straight Chiefs’ games have stayed below this mark, with those games seeing an average combined score of just 31.3.
Broncos vs Chiefs odds
- Broncos vs. Chiefs spread: Chiefs +13
- Broncos vs. Chiefs moneyline: Broncos -850, Chiefs +575
- Broncos vs. Chiefs Over/Under: 36.5
How to watch Broncos vs Chiefs
- Broncos vs. Chiefs matchup
- Date: Thursday, December 25, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Kansas City
- Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: Prime Video
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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