Our Bills vs. Rams computer picks are leaning into a potential Monday Night Football shootout, with Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford leading eight player props at SoFi Stadium.
The Rams won the teams' last meeting 44-42, and tonight's rematch carries a Week 5-high total of 54.5 points. Below, we break down the Covers prop projections and Kalshi probabilities ahead of the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff. Find more of our favorite NFL picks for Week 5.
Bills vs Rams computer picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Bills |
 Rams |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen o249.5 passing yards 48% |
Matthew Stafford o274.5 passing yards 55% |
| James Cook u79.5 rushing yards 54% |
Kyren Williams u69.5 rushing yards 52% |
| Khalil Shakir o49.5 receiving yards 45% |
Colby Parkinson o14.5 receiving yards 56% |
| James Cook o1.5 receptions 53% |
Kyren Williams anytime touchdown 59% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Bills vs Rams prop analysis
Bills computer picks
Josh Allen Over 249.5 passing yards (48%)
Projection: 268.66 passing yards
Josh Allen has thrown for 1,039 yards through four games, and Buffalo may need another big passing performance as a 3.5-point underdog. Covers projects the Bills to run 65.4 offensive plays and throw on nearly 60% of them, creating opportunities for Allen to pile up yards. The computer calls for 268.66 passing yards, more than 19 above his 249.5 line.
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James Cook Under 79.5 rushing yards (54%)
Projection: 66.19 rushing yards
James Cook III has been excellent on the ground, rushing for 421 yards at 6.0 yards per carry through four games. This Under is more about volume than efficiency: Buffalo could lean on the pass if it has to chase points against L.A. Our model expects 66.19 rushing yards from Cook, more than 13 below the 79.5-yard line.
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Khalil Shakir Over 49.5 receiving yards (45%)
Projection: 61.74 receiving yards
Khalil Shakir has commanded a 20% target share so far this season, and our model expects him to see 7.9 targets in a potentially pass-heavy Buffalo game script. With fellow wideout Josh Palmer ruled out, Shakir could become an even more important outlet for Allen. The projection of 61.74 receiving yards clears his 49.5-yard line by more than 12.
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James Cook Over 1.5 receptions (53%)
Projection: 2.22 receptions
Cook needs only two catches to get home on this prop, and Buffalo's projected passing volume offers a clear path. Short throws to the backfield could help Allen move the chains against Los Angeles, particularly if the Bills are forced into catch-up mode. With 2.22 receptions projected, the computer leans heavily toward the Over 1.5.
Rams computer picks
Matthew Stafford Over 274.5 passing yards (55%)
Projection: 287.86 passing yards
Matthew Stafford has passed for 1,189 yards through four games, and Buffalo has allowed opponents to attempt 38.5 passes per contest, the sixth-most in the NFL. The Rams are projected to throw on 61.4% of their plays, giving Stafford another volume-friendly matchup with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams available downfield.
🔥 Trade Stafford passing yards now
Kyren Williams Under 69.5 rushing yards (52%)
Projection: 62.14 rushing yards
Kyren Williams has rushed for 294 yards on 54 carries, but the Rams may find more success attacking Buffalo through the air. Los Angeles is projected to pass on 61.4% of its snaps against a defense that has encouraged plenty of opposing dropbacks. The computer settles at 62.14 rushing yards for Williams, more than seven shy of the 69.5-yard line.
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Colby Parkinson Over 14.5 receiving yards (56%)
Projection: 26.50 receiving yards
Colby Parkinson has a manageable receiving line against a Buffalo defense that's faced heavy passing volume this season. Our model projects the Rams tight end to draw a 10% target share, well above the 4.9% he's averaged in his appearances so far. That increased involvement supports a 26.50-yard projection, comfortably ahead of the 14.5-yard target.
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Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown (59%)
Projection: 0.83 touchdowns
Williams scored twice the last time the Bills visited SoFi Stadium in 2024 and already has three rushing touchdowns through four games this season. Even if his total rushing yardage falls short, the Rams' lead back still figures to get chances to finish drives in a matchup with a 54.5-point total. The model projects 0.83 touchdowns for Williams, supporting the anytime TD selection.
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