Bills vs Jets Week 9 Picks and Predictions: Jets Will Limit Allen Through the Air

Josh Allen is third in league passing yards entering Sunday but may be forced to take off with his legs more often than not against a Jets' defense that has been solid against the pass in 2022. Read more in our Bills vs. Jets betting picks.

Nov 6, 2022 • 08:17 ET • 4 min read

The Buffalo Bills head east to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Jets on Sunday.

The Bills are the second-best team in football, with a 6-1 record. Now they will take on the Jets, who are a bit of a surprise at tied for second in the AFC East. The Jets had their four-game winning streak snapped by New England last Sunday. 

Find out where the betting edge for this divisional tilt lies in our free NFL picks and predictions for Bills vs. Jets on November 6.

Bills vs Jets best odds

Bills vs Jets picks and predictions

Josh Allen is an elite quarterback, and when you look at Buffalo’s opponent this week, it should be a cakewalk.

The New York Jets, however, present some challenges that Allen will have to overcome. The first is New York’s pass defense. They are ranked 10th in the league, allowing an average of 203.4 yards per game.

If the Jets are doing even an average job of shutting down the Bills’ passing game, Allen might revert to his other weapon — his legs. That is why I am taking the Under on passing attempts from Allen. The total is set at 35.5, and the Under is at +100 while the Over is -130.

The Jets players are already anticipating Allen to do some scrambling, and they are ready. Defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins told NJ.com that they will treat him no differently than any other player running with the football.

“Once he’s a runner, he’s a runner,” Rankins said. “You know he’s not as protected by the quarterback rules as at other times, so you got to take the fight to him. You can’t allow him to build up that head of steam and do what he wants to do with the ball, you know, you can’t allow him to build up their head of steam and do what he wants to do with the ball.”

Allen won’t be the only one running around. The Bills acquired Indianapolis running back Nyheim Hines at the trade deadline. He should be sharing carries with Devin Singletary and present another addition to a strong running game that ranks 14th in the league.

Allen has had three games this season where he attempted less than 35 passes. Look for Allen to run rather than pass on Sunday against the Jets, who rank 20th in defending the run.

My best bet: Josh Allen Under 35.5 passing attempts (+100)

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Bills vs Jets spread analysis

The Bills have been double-digit favorites three times this season. They were 10-point favorites against Tennessee, -14 against Pittsburgh, and -10.5 last week against Green Bay. They covered the first two and missed out on the Green Bay game by a half-point.

Now they are 11.5-point favorites against the Jets on the road. The Bills are 7-1-2 against the spread in their last 10 following an ATS loss and are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 against AFC opponents.

What stands out here is the Jets' record at home. While they are 4-0 on the road, they are just 1-3 at MetLife Stadium. They are also 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.

The Bills have the No. 1 overall offense in the league, averaging 430.6 yards per game. They are also first in passing, averaging 307.7 yards per game. Their average of 29 points per game is second only to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Jets' defense is sixth overall in yards per game, averaging 311.4. They are 11th in points allowed per game, while the Bills are first.

The Bills have too many weapons at their disposal, and the newly acquired Hines should add another threat to their potent offense. I don’t think the Jets will be able to contain them, and they could get overwhelmed in the second half.

Bills vs Jets Over/Under analysis

The line for this game is 45.5, coming down from the opening line of 47.5. Buffalo is one of the best Under teams in the league and have gone that way in six of its seven games this season.

The Jets have played to the Under in five of their eight games, including the last three. The defenses should keep this game below the total. The Bills are first, allowing just 14 points per game. Meanwhile, the Jets are 11th, with an average of 19.9 points allowed per game.

The Under for Buffalo is 4-0 in the last four AFC games and the last four road games. The Under has hit in four of the last six head-to-head meetings between the Bills and the Jets. This game will be physical, and Allen could be getting knocked around on Sunday. 

Buffalo’s defense will be ready to dish out any retribution. Conference games tend to be physical, thus possibly low-scoring. I like this game to go Under the 45.5 total.

Bills vs Jets betting trend to know

The favorite is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Bills and Jets. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Jets.

Bills vs Jets game info

Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Date: Sunday, November 6, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Opening odds: Jets +12.5, 47 O/U

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