An AFC showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars kicks off Sunday’s Wild Card Weekend tripleheader, and our NFL player prop projections have identified the best betting values for this matchup in Duval County.
Headlined by Josh Allen surpassing his passing yards total, here are the best props to target ahead of kickoff on January 11.
Bills vs Jaguars computer picks for Wild Card Weekend
 Bills |
 Jaguars |
|---|---|
| Allen o227.5 pass -114 | Lawrence u235.5 pass -114 |
| Cook u79.5 rush -114 | Etienne Jr. u64.5 rush -114 |
| Shakir o44.5 rec -114 | Washington o50.5 rec -114 |
| Kincaid o36.5 rec -114 | Strange o35.5 rec -114 |
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Bills SNF computer picks
Josh Allen Over 227.5 passing yards (-114)
Projection: 239.56 yards
Allen has put the Bills on his back all season, and now he'll have the opportunity to torch a leaky Jaguars' secondary.
The reigning MVP’s passing accuracy has also surged this season, with his Adjusted Completion Percentage climbing from 64.7% to 71.1% year-over-year.
🔥 Bet josh allen passing yards now
James Cook Under 79.5 rushing yards (-114)
Projection: 76.47 yards
The NFL’s rushing leader may not be set for the stat-stuffing performances we’ve come to expect.
Cook is set to face the league’s top rushing defense, which is limiting teams to just 85.6 yards on the ground per game.
🏈 Bet James cook rushing yards now
Khalil Shakir Over 44.5 receiving yards (-114)
Projection: 54.84 yards
Shakir’s ability after the catch offers value against a weak Jacksonville secondary, and Buffalo’s primary slot receiver finished with six catches for 72 yards in last year’s 47–10 rout of the Jaguars.
Alternate-total bet
50+ yards (+116) - This prop presents great value.
🔥 Bet Khalil Shakir receiving yards now
Dalton Kincaid Over 36.5 receiving yards (-114)
Projection: 42.45 yards
Despite TE2 Dawson Knox cutting into his teammates’ targets, Kincaid is not a stereotypical tight end who relies on checkdowns.
Kincaid has averaged 39.0 air yards per game this season as he continues to stretch the field, and our computer projects him to hit the Over at EverBank Stadium.
🔥 Bet dalton kincaid receiving yards now
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Jaguars SNF computer picks
Trevor Lawrence Under 235.5 passing yards (-114)
Projection: 228.83 yards
Lawrence should be held in check against a Bills defense that only surrendered 156.9 passing yards per game during the regular season, a league-best mark.
Opposing QBs have also posted the eighth-lowest completion rate in the NFL against Buffalo’s defense in 2025-26.
🏈 Bet trevor Lawrence passing yards now
Travis Etienne Jr. Under 64.5 rushing yards (-114)
Projection: 58.0 yards
We’re projecting Etienne to fall short of this number for the fourth time in his last five games.
The Jaguars running back is coming off a 14-carry outing against Tennessee, where he averaged just 2.3 yards per attempt.
🏈 Bet Travis Etienne rushing yards now
Parker Washington Over 50.5 receiving yards (-114)
Projection: 56.87 yards
Washington has become a betting darling over the stretch, emerging as Jacksonville’s WR1 in the process.
The former sixth-round pick is averaging 100 receiving yards per game over the past month and has led the team in targets in three of those four contests.
Alternate-total bet
60+ yards (+132) - This number is worth considering.
🔥 Bet parker Washington receiving yards now
Brenton Strange Over 35.5 receiving yards (-114)
Projection: 41.86 yards
Jacksonville’s tight end has eclipsed 50+ receiving yards in consecutive games.
Strange has seen a major boost in his passing game role, boasting a 73.9% route participation rate this season, up from 45.2% last year.
🔥 Bet brenton strange receiving yards now
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