Sweden had a torrid qualifying campaign but still managed to reach the World Cup thanks to their play-off success in March.
Those bad memories are now behind them, and they need to make a statement if they are to reach the knockout stages in a group that also includes the Netherlands and Japan.
Check out my Sweden vs. Tunisia World Cup predictions and World Cup picks for June 11 to find out why the Vikings are well-positioned for a win in Monterrey.
TOP PICK
Who will win Sweden vs Tunisia: Sweden (-104 at Kalshi)
Under new manager Graham Potter, Sweden won both of their play-off matches in March to secure a somewhat surprising place at the World Cup. Why surprising? Because they collected just one point from the five qualifying matches they played before the play-offs.
The dismal campaign included two defeats to Kosovo and two draws against Slovenia.
Sweden reinvented itself in the play-offs and showed that their nightmare run was firmly behind them. They will also be relying on a fruitful partnership between Arsenal's Viktor Gyökeres and Liverpool's Alexander Isak to lead the attack.
When those two are your main goal threats, you can feel confident about your chances.
Tunisia, meanwhile, should be concerned, as they have struggled for form in recent months. Their final result before the World Cup was a 5-0 defeat to Belgium in a friendly.
That followed a 1-0 loss to Austria, a goalless draw with Canada, and an unconvincing 1-0 victory over Haiti. That's hardly impressive.
Having watched the match against Belgium, I was left with the impression that Tunisia is not ready for the challenge ahead.
Even though Sweden is no longer as feared as they once were, they should still have enough quality to get the job done and claim their first three points of the 2026 World Cup.
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Sweden vs Tunisia Over/Under Pick: Over 2.5 goals (+125)
Sweden scored three goals in each of their play-off matches against Ukraine and Poland in March, showing plenty of quality and creativity in attack on their way to qualification. At the same time, they were far less convincing at the other end of the pitch.
In fact, Sweden has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 matches.
That makes me believe Tunisia can get on the scoresheet. However, when I look at Sweden's predicted line-up and see Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak leading the attack, I can't help but think about the problems Tunisia's center-backs will face trying to contain them.
This partnership offers plenty of goal threat, which is why I'm backing over 2.5 goals in this match.
There have been over 3.5 goals in three of Sweden's last four matches. It's also worth noting that both teams have scored in each of Sweden's last four games and Tunisia's last four matches.
Sweden vs Tunisia projected lineup
Sweden (4-4-2): Nordfeldt, Johansson, Lindelof, Starfelt, Gudmundsson, Elanga, Ayari, Karlstrom, Sema, Isak, Gyökeres.
Tunisia (4-2-3-1): Dahmen, Arous, Talbi, Rekik, Valery, Skhiri, Belhadj Mahmoud, Achouri, Khedira, Ben Slimane, Mastouri.
Sweden vs Tunisia injuries
Sweden: Emil Holm RB (Out).
Tunisia: None.
Sweden vs Tunisia weather
Expect a high of 31°C (88°F) with scattered afternoon thunderstorms and a low of 23°C (74°F).
Sweden vs Tunisia odds
 Sweden |
 Tunisia |
|
|---|---|---|
| -104 | Moneyline | +355 |
| +270 | Draw | +270 |
| Over 2.5 (+138) | Total | Under 2.5 (-144) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Sweden vs Tunisia
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Estadio BBVA, Monterrey, MX |
| Date | Sunday, June 14, 2026 |
| Time | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TV |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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