Bills @ Broncos Picks & Props

Buffalo's biggest weakness is its run defense, but the Broncos won't capitalize. Since losing RB J.K. Dobbins to an injury in Week 10, Denver ranks 25th in rush EPA with R.J. Harvey churning out just 3.4 yards per carry. Bo Nix will also have a tough time throwing against a Bills defense that holds foes to 159.6 passing yards per game on 5.8 ypa. Buffalo's ability to throw downfield will also be limited due to a bevy of injuries at WR, and Denver has an elite stop unit. 

The Bills will have to shorten their passing game and rely on underneath throws with their WR corps decimated by injuries. That should lead to plenty of work for tight end Dawson Knox. Denver has a strong pass defense but is vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game (59.7) to the position. Knox has logged 24+ receiving yards in six of his last seven games, averaging 36.0 ypg over that span. He could get even more targets than usual with fellow TE Dalton Kincaid banged up. 

Nix has rushing yard totals of 49 and 42 on 17 total attempts over his last two games. This is a great matchup against a Bills defense that's allowed the fifth most rushing yards to opposing QBs. Recent weeks have seen the Bills allow Trevor Lawrence to rush for 31 yards, Sherdeur Sanders to go for 49 and Drake Maye went for 43. 

Over the four-game stretch from Weeks 14–17, Bo Nix logged seven red-zone rushing attempts and converted two of them into touchdowns. For context, lead back RJ Harvey had 10 red-zone carries over that span and also scored twice. Nix is a much sneakier rushing threat than the market gives him credit for. He ramped up his run rate late in the season, carrying the ball 17 times for 91 yards in Weeks 17 and 18 while adding five more red-zone rushes. Last week, Trevor Lawrence was priced at +190 to score with only a slight edge in season-long carries over Nix, highlighting the value here. If Denver can establish the run against a shaky run defense, a play-action bootleg near the goal line sets up perfectly for Nix to cash this at a strong price.

Allen threw the ball 35 times against the Jaguars for 28 completions, with a lot of those being quick hits and screens. Jacksonville sold out on stopping the run and Broncos DC Vance Joseph does the same here, testing this depleted receiving corps against his elite secondary. After watching James Cook steam roll his stop unit last postseason, he stacks the box – keeps Cook and Allen’s legs contained – and makes Buffalo pass plenty.

The Bills are running thin on receivers and feeling the pinch at TE as well. Kincaid limited in practice with knee and calf issues. He’s expected to play but the entire situation lifts Knox’s up the depth chart. Denver’s defense doesn’t have many gaps but it has given up gains to TEs. And he’s no stranger to the postseason pressure either, putting in some good work in the tournament throughout his career.

The Bills allowed an NFL high 18 rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs during the regular season and another four through the air, and Harvey scored six times across six games out of the Week 12 bye. Buffalo was also gashed for the third-most yards and second-highest EPA per carry while ranking 31st in run defense DVOA. Add the Bills allowing the Jacksonville Jaguars to run for a monster 6.7 yards per tote in the Wild Card Round to Buffalo travelling for the second consecutive game on a short week, and I like Harvey to find pay dirt Saturday.

Denver goes after Buffalo on the ground, which should limit Nix to begin with. But when he does throw, Nix doesn’t go beyond the sticks and sits near the bottom in air yard metrics. The Broncos are all about the YAC – sitting No. 2 in yards after the catch – but Buffalo’s pass defense is especially good at snuffing out YAC as a top tackling team, allowing the least in the NFL.

The Bills’ downfield attack will be limited, with the playbook shortened due to the injuries at WR. That leaves tight ends and Khalil Shakir as top options. The Broncos’ passing offense isn’t explosive, either. Quarterback Bo Nix sits near the bottom of most “air yards” statistics and Denver relies more on yards after the catch. In fact, the Broncos are the third best YAC passing game in the NFL and face a Bills defense that has allowed the fewest YAC to receivers on the year. Denver will go after a suspect Buffalo run stop, hoping to chip away and set up easier third downs, while controlling possession. The Broncos’ rushing attack has improved in the home stretch and runs behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. We’ve seen Buffalo have a tough time cracking top defenses like the Broncos. The Bills managed only 12 points against the Eagles, 19 points versus Houston, and 23 points in a close win over Cleveland.

Not only do the Bills hit the highway on a short week for the Divisional Round, star quarterback Josh Allen took his licks against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. Allen has another tall order in front of him this week with the Denver defense ranking fifth in defensive DVOA while allowing the lowest success rate and pacing the NFL in sacks. I also don’t trust the Bills run defense. Buffalo allowed 154 yards on just 23 carries (6.7 per tote) to the Jags after finishing the regular season ranked 31st in run defense DVOA and EPA per rush.

Buffalo drew a similar line at Jacksonville and stood as the road chalk for most of the week before sharp action faded the Bills on Friday, flipping Buffalo to +1.5.

The Bills now open as faves against a well-rested Denver team despite traveling for a second straight game after a very physical contest in Jacksonville. 

Quarterback Josh Allen took a pounding, being tested for a concussion, twisting his knee, and suffering an injury throwing hand in the win. On top of that, Buffalo is running short on receivers with only four regular WRs healthy and dual-threat RB Ty Johnson also hurt.

Buffalo has been able to break through top-tier defenses like Denver, putting up 12, 19, and 23 points against Philadelphia, Houston, and Cleveland – all of which finished Top 6 in Defensive DVOA. The Broncos are No. 8 in that advanced stat.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have only 130.3 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 53.7% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 53.7% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. Khalil Shakir's 4.1 adjusted catches per game this season indicates a meaningful reduction in his receiving proficiency over last season's 5.1 figure.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 53.7% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.. The model projects Josh Allen to throw 32.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Josh Allen's 211.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season conveys a material decline in his passing skills over last season's 237.0 rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have only 130.3 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. The Bills safeties grade out as the worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have only 130.3 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.. In this week's game, Evan Engram is predicted by the model to rank in the 78th percentile among TEs with 4.5 targets.. The Bills safeties grade out as the worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bills to run on 46.3% of their downs: the 2nd-highest rate among all teams this week.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The projections expect Josh Allen to total 8.3 rush attempts in this game, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks.. The leading projections forecast Josh Allen to be a more integral piece of his team's running game in this week's game (27.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (19.7% in games he has played).. Josh Allen has generated 33.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among QBs (98th percentile).

The model projects the Broncos as the 3rd-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 40.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Broncos as the 3rd-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 40.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.