Surviving another week in your NFL survivor pool isn't getting any easier, but our Covers experts have identified four teams they trust to get the job done in Week 5.
Our latest NFL survivor pool expert picks feature the Lions, Texans, Jaguars, and Cowboys, with each team looking to capitalize on a favorable matchup.
Find out why our experts are backing these four teams, along with their Kalshi win probabilities and more NFL picks for Week 5.
NFL survivor pool expert picks for Week 5
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Expert | Pick |  Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Dustin Saracini |
 Lions |
69% |
 Josh Inglis |
 Texans |
78% |
 Joe Osborne |
 Jaguars |
77% |
 Geoff Clark |
 Cowboys |
79% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Lions
Price: 69% at Kalshi
We're alive heading into Week 5 after the Ravens dispatched the Titans with relative ease. Let's take another lopsided matchup to keep our season chugging along when the Detroit Lions visit the Arizona Cardinals.
The Lions are fourth in the NFL in offensive EPA and third in success rate. That's going to play against the 27th-ranked defense in the NFL, which is allowing 29 points per game. We're bound to see some positive regression from the Lions' defense as well, making this play a no-brainer for me.
Josh Inglis' survivor pick: Texans
Price: 78% at Kalshi
It's Week 5, and I'm already taking an 0-4 team on the road, but Houston is motivated, and with Nico Collins back, this offense can score 30 points. If Houston loses for a third time while scoring 30+ points, I'll happily bow out of Survivor.
That said, there might not be many weeks where this offense is fully together, and the Tennessee Titans are one of just two teams averaging under 14 points per game. Tennessee is also dealing with injuries to Tony Pollard and multiple starters, which only improves Houston's chances. Collins is practicing in a limited capacity, while Pollard did not practice Wednesday.
Joe Osborne's survivor pick: Jaguars
Price: 77% at Kalshi
Let's back the Jacksonville Jaguars to handle business in their home away from home in London. The Jags have made a habit of smacking around inferior teams, and the Philadelphia Eagles look ready to crack, if they haven't already.
The Eagles' offense has been awful, their offensive line is in shambles, and injuries to Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith add to the mess. Against a Jacksonville defense allowing just over 13 points per game, a bounce-back performance after blowing their Week 4 game against the Rams isn't realistic.
Geoff Clark's expert pick: Cowboys
Price: 79% at Kalshi
Give me Dallas' veteran quarterback and offensive-minded head coach on a short week. Dak Prescott is 19-2 straight up as a home favorite of at least seven points, and he's playing at an MVP level.
Plus, this could be a get-right spot for Dallas' defense. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are starting an undrafted rookie quarterback in his first road game tonight, and their offensive line has surrendered the highest sack rate in the NFL.
I break down Dallas and the rest of this week's best options in my Week 5 Survivor Pool rankings.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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