One of the biggest NFL showdowns of Week 18 takes place between the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. It's a "win and you're in" scenario for the Packers, but they were in the exact same position in last year's regular-season finale and were upset by the Lions.
Don't expect Chicago to just roll over either considering it's won four of five heading into this matchup. The NFL odds for this historic division rivalry have Green Bay installed as a 3-point home favorite. Here are my free NFL picks for the Bears vs. Packers on January 7.
Bears vs Packers odds
Bears vs Packers predictions
On the surface, it might seem easy to lay the points with a Green Bay Packers team that should be heavily motivated at home. However, motivation can be tricky to gauge, and they came up short last year in an almost identical situation against a Detroit side that was a 4-point underdog.
Like that Lions team, the Chicago Bears have been eliminated from the playoffs but are playing their best football of the season. They've gone 5-2 straight up and 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games and are coming off a 37-17 rout of the Falcons.
Quarterback Justin Fields appears to have played well enough to keep his job for another year, and another strong showing would certainly help his case. Since coming back from a thumb injury in Week 11, Fields ranks eighth among all quarterbacks in EPA/play.
Green Bay is coming off a 33-10 victory against a Vikings squad starting a fifth-round rookie at QB. However, the Packers stop unit had allowed Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield, and even Tommy DeVito to look like studs the previous three weeks, so I see them regressing here. Especially since they tend to struggle against mobile QBs like Fields.
I also expect success from Green Bay's Jordan Love who has led all QBs in EPA/play since Week 11. Despite playing with a banged-up and inexperienced WR corps all season, Love has cemented himself as Green Bay's quarterback of the future. He's completed 68.4% of his passes for 262 yards per game while throwing 16 touchdowns and just one pick over the last seven outings.
The Bears have played extremely well on defense over the last few months but also faced a slew of Bottom 10 offenses during that stretch. Over their last 10 games, they played just three decent attacks, with two contests against Detroit and a clash against the Herbert-led Chargers.
Chicago shut down the Lions at Soldier Field but surrendered 31 points in Detroit while giving up 30 to the Bolts.
These teams clashed back in Week 1 resulting in a 38-20 Packers win and Love throwing for three scores. With Love even better now and Fields playing with more confidence and freedom under center, expect another Over to cash.
My best bet: Over 44 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Bears vs Packers same-game parlay
Over 44.5
Jordan Love Under 0.5 interceptions
Khalil Herbert Over 60.5 rushing yards
Since I'm expecting both teams to put up points, it also makes sense to back Love to have an efficient game and also bet on this Bears offense to move the ball on the ground.
Not only has Love been throwing the ball downfield extremely well, but his accuracy and decision-making have also improved significantly since the start of the season. He has thrown just one interception in his last seven games
Meanwhile, Khalil Herbert has been limited in practice with a back issue but I expect the Bears running back to suit up on Sunday. Herbert has rushed for more than 100 yards in back-to-back games and is facing a Packers defense that's 24th in the league in defensive rush EPA.
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Bears vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with the Packers installed as 3-point home faves. While the spread hasn't moved off that key number of 3.0 by Tuesday, Green Bay -3 was at -115 or -120, indicating that we could see it move to -3.5. The total hit the board at 44 and has stayed steady.
Both the Packers and Bears have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven games and are coming off blowout victories. The Bears are 5-1-1 ATS during that stretch while the Packers are 4-3 ATS.
With Love playing extremely well and Green Bay's banged-up defense looking shaky, the Over has cashed in six straight games. That said, Chicago's improved play on defense has resulted in the Under going 6-2-1 in its previous nine contests.
Bears vs Packers betting trend to know
The Packers have gone 9-0 SU and ATS in the last nine meetings between these division foes while the Over is 5-2 in the previous seven clashes. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Packers.
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Bears vs Packers game info
| Location: | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date: | Sunday, January 7, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 5:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Packers -3, 44 |
Bears vs Packers latest injuries
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