NFL touchdown props have been one of the most profitable angles this season, and we roll into Week 15 sitting at 29-plus units of profit on TD picks alone.
With roles tightening, injuries shifting usage, and several high-total matchups on the board, this is one of the best weeks of the year to attack this NFL picks market. Here are my favorite touchdown plays for Week 15, with value still popping across multiple games and player groups.
| Matchup | TD Pick |
|---|---|
 LV vs  PHI |
Bowers +265 |
 WAS vs  NYG |
Johnson +250 |
 LAC vs  KC |
Hampton +155 |
 CLE vs  CHI |
Fannin +295 |
 ARI vs  HOU |
Higgins +310 |
 NYJ vs  JAC |
Meyers +165 |
 BAL vs  CIN |
Likely +245 |
 BUF vs  NE |
Kincaid +245 |
 CAR vs  NO |
Hubbard +205 |
 IND vs  SEA |
Pittman +475 |
 DET vs  LAR |
Parkinson +240 |
 TEN vs  SF |
Pollard +310 |
 GB vs  DEN |
Watson +205 |
 MIN vs  DAL |
Mason +205 |
 MIA vs  PIT |
Waddle +200 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Raiders vs Eagles
Brock Bowers (+265 at DraftKings) B
It looks like Kenny Pickett will take on his former team with Geno Smith likely out. With Brock Bowers, you’re getting a player who never leaves the field — he logged a 100 percent snap share last week — and he’s the top option in a passing game that can’t run the ball.
The matchup against the Eagles is baked into this number, as Bowers has been as short as -110 to score and typically sits around +165. He gets elite target share and has the ability to score from outside the red zone, so +200 or better is a strong price. He has three touchdowns over his last two games, accounting for 75 percent of his team’s scores.
Commanders vs Giants
Theo Johnson (+250 at DraftKings) A
The Commanders are a strong matchup for any pass catcher, as their defense is one of six in the league allowing two or more passing touchdowns per game. The New York passing game should remain steady with Jaxson Dart, who’s coming into Week 15 with some extra rest.
Theo Johnson has been one of Dart’s most reliable options. The rookie tied for the team lead with eight targets last week, accounting for 33 percent of Dart’s attempts. He also showed some frustration in the loss, which could translate into a motivated performance on Sunday. This is playable to +210.
Chargers vs Chiefs
Omarion Hampton (+155 at DraftKings) A
Only two running backs had more red-zone carries last week than Omarion Hampton in his first game back (5). He didn’t convert those attempts, but he did score on an eight-yard reception.
This is a strong price for a lead back in a productive offense with the goal-line role. I’d play him to +120, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he took on even more work in his second game back from injury.
Browns vs Bears
Harold Fannin (+295 at DraftKings) A+
Harold Fannin cashed for us last week at +300, and even after an 8/114/1 performance against the Titans, his touchdown price hasn’t moved much. He’s Shedeur Sanders’ favorite target, and the David Njoku injury is only increasing his involvement.
Fannin might be the only TE/WR on this roster with red-zone looks from Sanders, and he’s scored in back-to-back weeks. A fair price here should be around +210 to +220.
Cardinals vs Texans
Jayden Higgins (+310 at DraftKings) B
This is a tough game because the prices on Houston’s main weapons, like Nico Collins and Woody Marks, aren’t appealing. On top of that, the Cardinals might struggle to put up even 14 points against this Houston defense.
That leads me to Jayden Higgins, who remains the WR2 in this offense and finished with the second-most targets last week against Kansas City. Collins has become CJ Stroud’s preferred option after Higgins had better chemistry with Davis Mills, but Higgins still has a clear role, especially against a defense that has given up 177 points over its last five games.
I wouldn’t play this any lower than +280.
Jets vs Jaguars
Jakobi Meyers (+165 at DraftKings) B-
There isn’t a ton of meat on this bone and I’d only play it to +150, but with the uncertainty around the No. 3 role between Parker Washington and Tim Patrick, Jakobi Meyers is the safest option at a reasonable number in a game where Jacksonville could push for 30 points.
Meyers has led the team in targets in back-to-back games while operating as the No. 1 receiver. He saw 10 targets last week and has recorded at least six in four straight, while finding the end zone in three consecutive games. His price has adjusted, but anything at +150 or better is still playable.
Ravens vs Bengals
Isaiah Likely (+245 at DraftKings) A+
What a price against the Bengals, who have been the most generous defense to opposing tight ends by a wide margin. Last week, Dalton Kincaid and Jackson Hawes both scored in the snow, giving Cincinnati 14 and 15 tight end touchdowns allowed on the season. The next-closest team has allowed nine.
Isaiah Likely saw three red-zone targets last week and put up 95 yards, plus what should have been a touchdown on Thanksgiving vs. the Bengals. I’m surprised this number is still north of +200, as I have the fair price closer to +170. Even Kincaid was +200 last week, coming off a lengthy injury.
Bills vs Patriots
Dalton Kincaid (+245 at DraftKings) A+
In his first game back from injury, Dalton Kincaid scored at +210 and finished with four catches on five targets, including one in the red zone. Buffalo’s tight ends were heavily involved against Cincinnati, catching 11 passes compared to nine from the wide receivers.
With another week of work, Kincaid should see an increase from the 52 percent route share he had last game. He’s also off the injury report entirely, which is a strong indication he’s back to full health heading into a rematch with New England, where he posted six catches and over 100 yards in Week 5. This touchdown price should be under +200.
Panthers vs Saints
Chuba Hubbard (+205 at DraftKings) A+
Bettors may have forgotten how much Chuba Hubbard’s usage jumped before the bye. He went over 100 total yards for the first time all season in Week 13 against the Rams and scored his first touchdown since Week 8. He logged 17 carries to Rico Dowdle’s 18 and added two receptions.
Dowdle is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry across his last four games on 61 attempts and may be trending toward a 1B role in what could be a run-heavy matchup with the Saints. There shouldn’t be a 100-point difference between the two Carolina backs in touchdown pricing. If Hubbard is in line for 15-plus touches, he should be closer to +140.
Colts vs Seahawks
Michael Pittman (+475 at DraftKings) B+
There are plenty of unknowns with this Indy offense, but all the wideouts are sitting at +450 or longer, which is hard to ignore whether it’s Riley Leonard or Philip Rivers starting.
When Daniel Jones went down last week, Leonard stepped in and threw 10 of his 29 attempts to Michael Pittman. That’s serious volume. The matchup in Seattle isn’t ideal, but Leonard is expected to practice this week, and that level of target share paired with a +475 price is an easy play for me. Even Alec Pierce at +675 is appealing.
Lions vs Rams
Colby Parkinson (+240 at DraftKings) A-
Getting Colby Parkinson at better than +200 when he’s scored in four of his last five games is a great value. He’s not the top option in the passing game, but he’s reliably seeing around five targets a game, and half of his looks over the last three weeks have come in the red zone.
This matchup has the potential to reach 50-plus points with both offenses scoring indoors. Among all pass catchers in this game, Parkinson offers the best value. The LA running back prices have stabilized, and Detroit continues to concentrate usage around its usual playmakers with Amon-Ra St. Brown healthy.
Titans vs 49ers
Tony Pollard (+310 at DraftKings) A-
I’m not suddenly buying into the Titans’ offense after one good week, but Tony Pollard at this price is hard to ignore. You’re getting a lead back coming off a 25-carry, 161-yard, two-touchdown performance at essentially a WR3/WR4 number.
The 49ers may be coming off a bye, but this defense isn’t a Top-10 unit and is still missing key pieces with Fred Warner and Nick Bosa out.
Even if Tennessee only scores 14 points, I’d take Pollard at +300 or better, especially with his red-zone role. Any back projected for 15 touches should be shorter than +250.
Packers vs Broncos
Christian Watson (+205 at DraftKings) A-
Christian Watson has been one of the best touchdown producers in football over the last four weeks with five total TDs, and the Denver matchup is keeping this number above two dollars in Week 15.
The Green Bay receiver room isn’t the mess it used to be. Watson and Romeo Doubs are handling most of the routes, with Jayden Reed rotating in for 3-WR sets. If Watson ever opened in the +130 to +140 range in a good matchup, it wouldn’t surprise me, so this could be the best price we see for a while. He’s already cashed at +175 and +200 in consecutive weeks.
Vikings vs Cowboys
Jordan Mason (+205 at DraftKings) B+
Aaron Jones is +155, but I'd rather have Jordan Mason, who had 11 carries last week and got the red-zone role vs. Washington. He finished that game with five carries inside the 20-yard line, which tied for the third most by any RB in Week 14.
Jones has also been dealing with injuries and inefficiency, which might open the door for more work for Mason. If JJ McCarthy can build on his Week 14 performance, Minnesota could flirt with 24 points in Dallas, where everyone scores. Mason will have a big role on Sunday night for an offense that wants to run the ball.
Dolphins vs Steelers
Jaylen Waddle (+200 at DraftKings) B-
The Dolphins have been running the ball well of late, but De’Von Achane’s rib injury is concerning and his practice reps are in question. If I’m pivoting on an offense that has scored over 100 points across its last four wins, I’m taking the first read in the passing game at a fair +200.
Jaylen Waddle has six touchdowns this season and has gone more than one game without a score only once. He even saw a 21-yard rushing attempt last week and could take on more ground work if Achane sits, especially in a cold-weather game where moving the ball could be tougher.
He’s their second-best weapon and could become the focal point if Achane is out.
Week 15 anytime touchdown parlay
Colby Parkinson TD
Isaiah Likely TD
Dalton Kincaid TD
I've been heavy on the RBs here every week, but another 3-for-4 week has me changing course, and that route is with some of these great-priced tight ends. I'm taking three of my favorites and getting better odds than I was with four RBs, which were usually around +1200 each week.
My weekly NFL TD props column is at +29.747 units this season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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