Week 12 is shaping up as a prime spot for NFL touchdown props, and I’m feeling confident after a hot run — I’m currently up 24 units on the season.
From red-zone vultures to goal-line workhorses, this week’s slate is full of players who could find the end zone multiple times. Whether your NFL picks are chasing longshots or sticking to high-floor targets, there are plenty of angles to attack the TD markets this weekend.
| Matchup | TD Pick |
|---|---|
 MIN vs  GB |
Whyle +1100 |
 IND vs  KC |
Pierce +280 |
 NE vs  CIN |
Fant +350 |
 PIT vs  CHI |
Odunze +145 |
 NYJ vs  BAL |
Metchie +475 |
 NYG vs  DET |
Singletary +250 |
 SEA vs  TEN |
Shaheed +260 |
 JAC vs  ARI |
Wilson +240 |
 CLE vs  LV |
CLE D/ST +475 |
 PHI vs  DAL |
Hurts -115 |
 ATL vs  NO |
Hodge +1500 |
 TB vs  LAR |
Parkinson +450 |
 CAR vs  SF |
McMillan +160 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Vikings vs Packers TD pick:
Josh Whyle (+1100 at DraftKings) B-
Kicking off the Week 12 touchdown card with a long shot at Lambeau. I’ve seen enough of JJ McCarthy to avoid all Minnesota skill players against this defense, but Josh Whyle is a name I’m excited to take a swing on at this number.
With Tucker Kraft out, there’s no clear answer at tight end, which opens the door for Josh Whyle. He stole snaps from Luke Musgrave last week and scored on his only target. No Packers tight end had more than one catch, and the wide receiver room is crowded again with players returning. Add in the uncertainty around Josh Jacobs’ knee, and there may be a need for auxiliary help near the goal line.
Whyle’s role is growing as he enters his third game with the team, and at this price, I’m comfortable throwing a full-unit dart.
Colts vs Chiefs
Alec Pierce (+280 at DraftKings) A
Alec Pierce has hit the Over on his receiving yards in every game this season, and the last time bettors saw him, he led the Colts’ receivers in Berlin with 84 yards and a touchdown.
Since returning to the lineup, Pierce has racked up 414 yards in five games. He’s not the same red-zone threat as Josh Downs (+320), but Daniel Jones trusts him on deep, contested targets.
The Chiefs are overvalued, and Pierce has taken over as the Colts’ WR1 and the No. 2 option behind Ty Warren. A yardage prop of 60.5 is too cheap for his current role. I’m playing this to +240.
Patriots vs Bengals
Noah Fant (+350 at DraftKings) B
I’m always interested in high-priced tight end touchdown shots. Noah Fant ran the most routes and played the most snaps among Bengals TEs in Week 11, and he caught more passes (five) than any of their receivers. Since Mike Gesicki went down, Fant has posted two touchdowns and 14 catches over four games.
The wrinkle is Gesicki’s return, as his practice window opened this week. Bringing him back now would be a bit rushed, and even if he’s activated, Fant has established a clear role with Joe Flacco — a quarterback Gesicki has played only two snaps with.
Gesicki has just eight catches in six games, which makes an early position on Fant easier to justify. You can also wait for clarity, as Fant has closed around this price for a touchdown in four straight weeks. The Patriots are a Top-10 matchup for opposing TEs. The Joe Burrow news is a cherry on top.
Steelers vs Bears
Rome Odunze (+145 at DraftKings) B
There aren’t many markets posted for this matchup, but Chicago’s passing game draws a great spot against a Pittsburgh defense that allows the most receiving yards to opposing wideouts. Rome Odunze should be the focal point of the Bears’ offense, especially with D’Andre Swift limited in practice.
Odunze has scored in half his games this season and in three of four at home. The Steelers are missing four defensive backs, and Darius Slay is questionable after sitting out last week with a concussion. With limited playable options due to all the offensive injuries, Odunze is the safest angle on the board, and there’s still 10-15 points of cushion in his number.
Jets vs Ravens
John Metchie (+475 at DraftKings) A+
The New York passing game should at least function on Sunday with Tyrod Taylor under center. John Metchie caught all three of his targets last week — not easy with Justin Fields in just his second game as a Jet — and turned one into a 22-yard touchdown. At +475, I’m backing him again.
In Week 11, Metchie led all New York receivers in snap share and receiving yards. Adonai Mitchell continues to struggle with drops and is still priced 125 points shorter than Metchie. With Garrett Wilson sidelined, Metchie may operate as the WR1 in what should be a pass-heavy game script. I’d play this down to +350.
Giants vs Lions
Devin Singletary (+250 at DraftKings) A+
The Giants’ backfield usage doesn’t match the touchdown odds. Devin Singletary has 13 red-zone carries to Tyrone Tracy’s three since Cam Skattebo went down, yet Tracy is priced shorter to score. That doesn’t make much sense. Last week, the backfield was a true 50/50 split, and the two combined for 35 carries.
Singletary handled nine of the team’s 10 red-zone rushing attempts and scored twice. The offense isn’t pretty, but he owns the red-zone role and can handle 15-plus touches. Anything above +200 is a buy for me, even in a likely negative game script.
Seahawks vs Titans
Rashid Shaheed (+260 at DraftKings) B
The newcomer gets a strong matchup against the Titans. Rashid Shaheed stepped into the No. 3 role last week, running a route on 73% of snaps. He saw five targets and a carry, and now draws a much softer opponent in Tennessee, a defense allowing the fifth-most receiving yards to wideouts.
It’s a solid price for an offense that should push 25+ points on Sunday, and this could be a spot where they dial up more designed touches for the speedster. Tory Holton didn’t practice on Wednesday and could be headed to IR, which would leave the field-stretching WR3 role fully in Shaheed’s hands. I’d play this down to about +230.
Jaguars vs Cardinals
Michael Wilson (+220 at DraftKings) A+
There are plenty of moving parts in this matchup, with uncertainty in both the Arizona backfield and Jacksonville’s receiver group. What we do know is Marvin Harrison Jr. is out again, and Jacoby Brissett isn’t shy about pushing the ball downfield.
Brissett and Michael Wilson connected for 185 yards last week against San Francisco. Wilson didn’t score, but with the injuries in the backfield and Trey McBride drawing most of the defensive attention, he has a real chance to grab his second touchdown of the season as Arizona’s de facto No. 1 wideout. I’d play this down to +180. McBride sitting at -130 to score is wild.
Browns vs Raiders
Cleveland D/ST (+475 at DraftKings) B+
This could end up being one of the ugliest games of the season. The Las Vegas offensive line is a mess, as we saw on Monday night when the Cowboys got to Geno Smith four times. Smith also tossed his league-leading 13th interception and now has just as many multi-INT games as multi-TD games.
Cleveland’s pass rush may bring more heat than Smith has faced all year, which opens the door for a strip-sack or even a defensive score. A Pick-6 is also firmly in play. This Browns unit found the end zone last week and again in Week 7.
Week 12 sets up as another potential splash spot, and taking a shot on the last touchdown at +2000 is worth a look. There is a good chance that a defense is scoring in this game.
Eagles vs Cowboys
Jalen Hurts (-115 at DraftKings) B+
I’m not interested in chasing Cowboys touchdown props given how shaky their defense has looked. Jalen Hurts is getting nearly every goal-line carry, and he should see even more work indoors at Jerry World, where opponents are averaging around 30 points per game this season.
Hurts scored the Eagles’ only touchdown last week and is one of just two quarterbacks with 20+ red-zone carries. His efficiency could easily tick up — he has only five touchdowns on 10 carries inside the 5-yard line. If the Eagles push toward 30 points, Hurts has a real chance to find the end zone more than once in a big divisional matchup.
Falcons vs Saints
KhaDarel Hodge (+1500 at DraftKings) A
This Week 12 long shot stays indoors and features a receiver who already has a solid connection with his new quarterback, Kirk Cousins.
With Michael Penix out and Drake London sidelined by a PCL injury, the door opens for KhaDarel Hodge. In Week 8, with Cousins under center and London inactive, Hodge saw eight targets and ran a season-high 21 routes.
Darnell Mooney has been a non-factor and is dealing with a collarbone issue that may be limiting him. It’s a speculative play, but Hodge has a real chance to be a top-two WR for Atlanta in a favorable matchup. This is a full-unit swing that could close around +500 if he’s confirmed as the WR2.
Buccaneers vs Rams
Colby Parkinson (+450 at DraftKings) B+
I’m running back last week’s best TD hit and taking Colby Parkinson to score for a third straight game at a big number.
Matthew Stafford leans on his tight ends near the goal line, and Parkinson has five red-zone targets over his last three games, including at least one inside the 10 in all three. You won’t see much of him between the 20s — his work comes when it matters.
Parkinson leads all Rams tight ends with eight red-zone targets this season, and Stafford has thrown seven red-zone touchdowns to the position. This is the right profile at the right price.
With the news of Tyler Higbee going on the shelf, I'd play this to +325.
Panthers vs 49ers
Tetairoa McMillan (+160 at DraftKings) A
Bryce Young finally showed some life last week, throwing for more yards than any Carolina quarterback has in franchise history. Now he gets a prime-time matchup against a defense that just allowed 47 completions to Jacoby Brissett, an NFL single-game record.
Tetairoa McMillan offers one of the safest receiving floors in the league. He accounts for about 30% of Carolina’s targets and 40% of the air yards. Last week, he put up 130 yards on 12 targets with two touchdowns, and he led all Week 11 players with four red-zone targets.
This TD price opened at +200, and the adjustment is the only reason it’s not an A-plus play.
Week 12 anytime touchdown parlay
David Montgomery
Kenneth Walker
Travis Etienne
Jalen Hurts
David Montgomery is getting his name in the paper this week as his head coach has said he wants to get him more carries. Kenneth Walker got the TD last week and is a goal-line option in a great matchup vs. the Titans.
Bayshul Tuten is taking some work, but Travis Etienne still had the majority of the red-zone carries last week. Arizona is bleeding points. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles will flirt with 30 points in Dallas. He will get everything near the goal line yet again.
My weekly NFL TD props column is +24.34 units this season.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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