We’ve got some exciting games ahead of us this Sunday, and I took a look at the odds available on first touchdown scorers, then broke down the three that offer the best mix of value and opportunity.
Here are my favorite Week 12 NFL picks. For more TD action, check out Josh Inglis' anytime touchdown picks!
Best Week 12 first TD scorer props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 TreVeyon Henderson |
First touchdown | +750 |
 Daniel Jones |
First touchdown | +1700 |
 Keaton Mitchell |
First touchdown | +2200 |
TD prop #1: TreVeyon Henderson first TD scorer
As always with the Patriots' backfield, the shadow of Rhamondre Stevenson looms over this game, but TreVeyon Henderson has surely done enough to keep hold of his place as the team’s lead back.
Stevenson is a solid contributor, but Henderson’s burst and elusiveness make him a real standout. He’s exploded over the past few weeks with double-digit carries in his past four games, including five TDs over the last two.
He’s in electric form and faces a Bengals’ defense who are tied for the most touchdowns allowed to opposing running backs.
TD prop #2: Daniel Jones first TD scorer
The Chiefs against the Colts feels like a huge game this weekend, with a victory on the road at Arrowhead cementing the Colts’ status as a team that can beat Patrick Mahomes.
The bad news for the Chiefs is they've allowed the most rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, an average of one touchdown every other game.
For Daniel Jones himself, there’s also good news; he’s fit and healthy to play with no question marks over his status for this game. It’s been a great bounce-back season for the former Giant, and a big part of that has been the threat he offers with his legs.
He’s scored five rushing touchdowns in 10 games.
TD prop #3: Keaton Mitchell first TD scorer
The Ravens are tied as the biggest favorites in Week 12 against the Jets, and this is a matchup that really suits their offense.
The Jets are giving up a staggering 130.9 yards on the ground per game and allowing more than one touchdown to opposing running backs each game. A dual-threat running back could torch this defense, as we saw from TreVeyon Henderson last week.
That leads me to a leftfield first TD selection, which is taking running back Keaton Mitchell over the betting favorite Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson.
Jackson isn’t rushing as much this season and has just one TD with his legs, and Henry has been giving up carries to Mitchell. Last week, Mitchell had six carries to Henry’s 18, with Mitchell seeing an increase from the week before.
He’s averaging 5.8 yards per carry and 8.8 when targeted in the passing game. He’s a dynamic player, and with odds over seven times larger than Henry's, he needs to be backed.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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