Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers play host to the red-hot Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football.
Rodgers is coming off one of his best games of the season in a huge divisional win and now must stay strong to keep a lead in the AFC North.
Here are my top NFL picks for our Dolphins vs Steelers predictions, with a spotlight on Aaron Rodgers odds, on Monday, December 15.
Aaron Rodgers prop pick
Aaron Rodgers best bet: Over 20.5 completions (-125 at bet365)
Pittsburgh Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers had a bit of an up-and-down season, but he is coming off one of his best performances when he went 23/34 for 284 yards and a touchdown in a win over the Baltimore Ravens.
Rodgers hasn't been airing it out, as he has thrown downfield (10+ air yards) on a league-low 22.7% of his attempts this season. However, he has completed 31 of 45 pass attempts against Cover 2 schemes for 406 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions.
The Miami Dolphins have played Cover 2 on 26.5% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL, allowing a 54.2% dropback success rate in such coverage (third-highest).
The Dolphins have blitzed on 34.8% of dropbacks, which is the third-highest rate in the league, but have generated pressure on only 37.8% of those. Rodgers has been pressured on a league-low 26.1% of his blitzed dropbacks.
The combination of Rodgers having time to throw with his ability to pick apart Cover 2 defenses makes this a great bet to rack up the completions. Rodgers has hit this number in six of his 11 games he started and finished.
Aaron Rodgers same-game parlay
Aaron Rodgers Over 20.5 completions
Steelers moneyline
Adam Thielen Under 15.5 receiving yards
To go with our best bet, I am going to take the Steelers to win, as they have won 22 straight home games on Monday Night Football, and Mike Tomlin has never lost in that situation.
Finally, Adam Thielen had only one reception for four yards last week, while playing 48% of the snaps.
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