Week 1 is here, and the regular season kicks off with a high-stakes NFC East clash as the Dallas Cowboys take on the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. But before the action begins, there’s plenty to get excited about.
From breakout milestones to inevitable regressions, Jason Logan breaks down his top NFL player prop futures for every team.
So before you huddle up with friends for Thursday Night Football, make sure to lock in the futures worth watching.
AFC North
Lamar Jackson best bet: Under 749.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
The tea leaves all point to another MVP-worthy season for Lamar Jackson. The dual-threat QB complemented his 4,000-plus passing yards with over 900 rushing yards in 2024, even with Henry demanding carries.
I’m zigging on his 2025 ground production, as are some season-long projections. Most models call for 800 yards or more, but others aren’t so bullish on Lamar’s rushing prospects.
The Baltimore Ravens run into plenty of Top 10 defenses this season, along with some very strong pass rushes, and we’re seeing Jackson’s number being called less. To avoid wear and tear, Monken may scale back the designed runs and lean into Lamar’s progress as a passer.
Joe Burrow best bet: Lead NFL in Passing Yards (+500 at bet365)
Joe Burrow may not match his incredible output of 2024 but the situations that led to those number will remain the same for the Cincinnati Bengals superstar QB.
As long as the defense is a dud, Cincinnati will have to scratch and claw for victories. While contemporaries like Allen, Jackson and Mahomes are killing the clock with handoffs in the second half, Burrow will be letting it rip as he tries to outgun every opponent until the final whistle.
Season-long projections put Burrow at the top of the passing yards table, forecasted between 4,600 and 4,800 yards through the air.
Myles Garrett best bet: Over 12.5 sacks (-110 at bet365)
Myles Garrett has recorded 14 or more sacks in four straight seasons and will get ample opportunities to chase down opposing passers given the Cleveland Browns offense can’t move the chains.
Looking at the Browns’ schedule, there are plenty of capable QBs but several average to poor offensive lines working against Garrett & Co.
Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is looking to get all $40 million out of Garrett’s new contract and has challenged his star to have the best season of his career.
DK Metcalf best bet: Under 6.5 Touchdowns (-115 at bet365)
DK Metcalf got paid in the shade by the Pittsburgh Steelers, but I’m not convinced that the new contract pans out to plenty of touchdowns.
Season-long projections hover around seven TD grabs, which is on par with his production the past three seasons in Seattle.
Arthur Smith’s offense is anchored in the run, and when Aaron Rodgers does drop back, secondaries will sandwich Metcalf, knowing there aren’t other threats to worry about. Smith’s playbook struggles in the red zone, finishing 29th and 30th in his previous two NFL seasons.
AFC East
Josh Allen best bet: Under 10.5 rushing touchdowns (-130 at bet365)
Josh Allen scrambled for 12 rushing touchdowns in 2024, with many of those scores coming in the Buffalo Bills’ biggest games.
He ran for two TDs in a shootout with Arizona in Week 1, ran for three tuddies against the Rams, had a pair at Detroit, and cracked the goal line in games against San Francisco and Kansas City.
Projections for 2025 call for 11 rushing touchdowns for the new “Mr. Hailee Steinfeld” — just over this 10.5-touchdown total.
I’ll put on my front office hat for this one and say that with Cook locking in a new four-year deal, Buffalo will look to protect Allen from any harm and not call his number as often in red-zone run situations.
Tua Tagovailoa best bet: Over 22.5 Touchdown Passes (-110 at bet365)
Tua Tagovailoa tossed 19 touchdowns strikes in only 11 games last season and this current prop total seems to be counting on the Miami Dolphins quarterback to miss time in 2025.
How else can you explain that number when projections range from 26 to 28 touchdown passes?
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have a high ceiling, Achane had six receiving TDs in 2024, and when Tua’s healthy, McDaniel’s playbook shines in the red zone.
The Dolphins’ defensive opposition isn’t too stiff either. Indianapolis, the Jets, Carolina, Atlanta, Washington, New Orleans, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay all give up a ton of points.
Drake Maye best bet: Over 3274.5 Passing Yards (-110 at bet365)
New England Patriots fans feel good about Drake Maye’s prospects after training camp and preseason. The second-year QB looks to be settling into Daniels’ playbook quickly.
The upcoming schedule helps his maturation with some really bad defenses right out of the shoot. Las Vegas, Miami, Carolina, New Orleans, Tennessee, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, the New York Jets and Cincinnati make up nine of the first dozen foes. Those teams could be the nine worst stop units in the land.
Season-long forecasts are tempered, ranging from just under 3,500 to close to 3,700 passing yards from Maye. That's still more than enough to top this player prop total.
Breece Hall best bet: Over 900.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Breece Hall was able to run for just shy of 900 yards in a playbook that passed at the fourth-highest rate (64%).
Some of that was Rodgers dictating things. Some of it was the team playing from behind.
And some of it was due to poor ball control, with Hall fumbling the ball five times.
I’m confident in the New York Jets' defense keeping things close, and with Fields not demanding dropbacks, New York will see an uptick in handoffs in 2025. Coach Glenn did say he wants to spread the love around to all the Jets’ RBs, but Hall is still the top option.
Projections range between 870 and 1,110 yards rushing from the Jets RB. I like what this promising O-line is doing in front of him, getting Hall over the 900.5-yard mark.
AFC South
C.J. Stroud best bet: Over 21.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110 at bet365)
The Houston Texans’ ground game is dinged up and that could leave red zone touches to C.J. Stroud, who passed for 20 touchdowns in 17 games last season.
There are some jump ball options in the end zone with 6-foot-4 Collins, 6-foot-4 rookie Jayden Higgins, and 6-foot-5 TE Dalton Schultz. Rookie RB Woody Marks is also a pass catching threat on screens.
Season-long forecasts call for between 24 and 26 passing TDs from Stroud, who benefits from plenty of indoor outings in the home stretch of the schedule.
Jonathan Taylor best bet: Under 9.5 rushing touchdowns (-105 at bet365)
Jonathan Taylor rumbled for 11 touchdowns in 14 games for the Indianapolis Colts in 2024. He’s been limited by injuries the past three seasons, and while that may or may not happen in 2025, he is sharing the football with two QBs who love to take off.
Red zone carries could get cut back if Jones or Richardson decides to take off, either in designed calls or just scrambling from pressure. The Colts also added rookie RB D.J. Giddens to take the load off the veteran runner this season.
Season-long projections range from nine to 13 touchdown runs from Taylor.
Trevor Lawrence best bet: Over 22.5 touchdown passes (-130 at bet365)
Trevor Lawrence had just 11 touchdown passes in 10 games last season and has thrown for more than 23 TDs only once in his four years in the pros (25 in 2022). That said, he’s never had a coach like Coen fueling this offense.
Tampa Bay was fourth in scoring and red-zone TD rate in 2024, and with jump ball specialist Thomas Jr. and Hunter, Lawrence can leave it up there for those WRs when Jacksonville knocks on the door of the end zone.
Coen is also working the running backs into the passing game, with Etienne and dual-threat option, and Tuten a catch-and-run speedster.
This TD total is the same as last year’s number, and season-long projections sit between 22 and 24 touchdown throws from T-Law.
Cam Ward best bet: Under 19.5 Passing Touchdowns (-130 at bet365)
Projecting the output of rookie quarterbacks is a tall order. If we look again at those last three QBs selected No. 1 overall, the touchdown count is the most questionable area.
Lawrence managed just a dozen touchdown passes in his first season. Young finished with 11. Williams struck for 20 TDs in 2024, but had a much better offense around him in terms of skill players.
Last season, the Tennessee Titans were 24th in red zone TD success and were 26th in RZ attempts. Opponents will be protecting leads and running out the clock in the second half, limiting Cam Ward’s snaps and opportunities to top this TD total.
AFC West
Bo Nix best bet: Over 424.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
A back injury dampened Bo Nix’s ground gains midway through the year after seeing his number called quite a bit in the first half of the schedule. He healed up and returned to that pace in the home stretch, finishing with 430 rushing yards.
Being able to scramble away from pressure or keep the defense guessing with a designed run is one of Nix’s greatest strengths. He’s not Lamar Jackson but does run a ton of RPO, and Year 2 in Payton’s system will leverage those crazy legs.
Season models aren’t bullish on Bo, with forecasts between 418 and 460 rushing yards. Given the growing tape and so-so skill players around him, Nix will have to make plays with his legs in 2025.
Patrick Mahomes best bet: Over 27.5 passing touchdowns (-110 at bet365)
Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 26 and 27 touchdowns the past two seasons, a sizable drop from the 41 TD connections in 2022.
The injuries to the receiving corps and poor pass protection took a lot of pop out of this passing game, leaving Mahomes to throw short or behind the line of scrimmage.
Reid and OC Matt Nagy need to find a way to stretch this passing game. Rashee Rice’s six-game ban stings, but Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy are notable deep threats.
Season-long models bounce around 30 touchdowns for Mahomes, and that's factoring in him potentially sitting out Week 18. The AFC West could be tight enough that this game actually carries weight come January.
Brock Bowers best bet: Under 1000.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at bet365)
Brock Bowers is ripe for regression after an insane rookie season in which he caught 112 passes for 1,194 yards receiving.
The upgrade to Geno Smith at QB could balance that out, but Chip Kelly runs a lot of 12-personnel. That means Bowers is sharing snaps with fellow TE Michael Mayer, who got a lot of work in the preseason after missing six games in 2024.
Bowers is no longer a secret weapon, which means teams will game plan to take him away — especially since the rest of this receiving corps is crappy. Season-long models are more optimistic, but I’m not buying stock in Brock.
Justin Herbert best bet: Over 3625.5 Passing Yards (-110 at bet365)
I’m not running through walls to bet this Over, knowing how run-centric this playbook is and the shallow depth chart at WR. However, we forget Justin Herbert entered last season with a foot injury, which tempered his stats in the opening month of play.
Herbert topped out at 179 passing yards in the first four games before finding his way in this new system. His attempts skyrocketed in the final two months of the schedule, and he ultimately eclipsed his 2024 total of 3,575.5 yards.
This year’s ask is a little higher but very achievable, considering season-long models range from 3,700 to 4,100.
NFC North
Caleb Williams best bet: Over 22.5 passing touchdowns (-110 at bet365)
Caleb Williams threw for 20 touchdowns in his rookie campaign, and if there’s one thing Ben Johnson does well, it’s cashing in red-zone chances. During his tenure in Detroit, the Chicago Bears' new head coach had the Lions among the leaders in touchdown rate inside the 20-yard line.
The offense won’t stall out as often with competent protection, improving on third down conversions, and trimming down long yardage situations. Johnson’s famed two-TE sets proved to be RZ gold in Motown, and the Bears have two very talented tight ends.
Player projections range from 21.5 to 25 touchdown throws from Williams, who looked solid in preseason showings (if that counts for anything).
Jared Goff best bet: Under 28.5 Touchdown Passes (-110 at bet365)
Jared Goff posted 29, 30, and 37 touchdown passes in his three seasons with Ben Johnson calling the shots. The Detroit Lions had one of the most efficient red-zone attacks in that span, and creative playcalling led to plenty of home run scores as well.
Given Johnson’s exodus, a shuffle on the O-line, and some very stout defensive foes, I’m fading Goff’s touchdown prop in 2025.
Eight opponents ranked Top 15 in red zone defense in 2024, and new OC Morton could keep it simple on the goal line, leaning into the RB tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
Player projections range from a high of 34 to a low of 25 TD throws from Goff.
Jordan Love best bet: Over 3550.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
The Green Bay Packers aren’t paying Jordan Love $220 million to hand the ball off. Green Bay will press pass more in 2025 and hopes rookie WR Matthew Golden can finally be the true No. 1 it’s been missing.
I’m not as optimistic about the Packers as some, and this team could find itself trailing more often than not against a schedule loaded with top-tier attacks. That forces LaFleur to dial up the passing plays.
Love’s season-long projections all jibe with each other — which is rare — with all models calling for around 4,030 yards. That’s more than enough to top this modest passing prop.
Justin Jefferson best bet: Over 1250.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at bet365)
Justin Jefferson proved that he’s the No. 1 receiver in the NFL by lifting the ghost of Sam Darnold to MVP-calibre play in 2024.
J.J. finished second in the league in receiving yards last year, and the only season he didn’t eclipse this current total was a 10-game 2023 in which he still hauled in 1,074 yards.
Sure, the schedule features more than a few dominant defenses, but O’Connell would be stupid to dial back the pass and nullify his best weapon. Player projections are all over the place 1 between 1,600 and 1,400 yards — but they all come in Over this prop number.
NFC East
Dak Prescott best bet: Over 26.5 Touchdown Passes (+100 at bet365)
Season projections for Dak Prescott range from 24 touchdowns to 30, which seems conservative, considering this playbook will be forced to be "pass happy."
Futures books have Prescott as the third-overall favorite to lead the league in passing yards, behind only Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. That's good company. Before going down last year, Dak had 11 touchdown throws in eight games (vs. TD total of 30.5) and finished 2023 with 36 scoring strikes.
Schottenheimer is now calling the plays on offense, and he had Seattle ranked among the top red-zone TD rates in his three years as the Seahawks’ coordinator. Lamb and Pickens are TD targets and also create a lot of space in the end zone.
Malik Nabers best bet: Over 1150.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at bet365)
Malik Nabers is going to get the targets to top this prop total, and player projections call for a monster year, thanks to the New York Giants’ revamped QB carousel. There, there. Daniel Jones can’t hurt you anymore.
Season-long forecasts have Nabers reeling in between 1,300 and 1,400 receiving yards in 2025. In 15 games as a rookie, he drew 170 targets for 109 catches and just over 1,200 yards, but averaged only 11.0 yards per reception due to Jones’ noodle arm.
Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston will let’er rip, and with New York likely trailing most Sundays, there will be plenty of passes in the “Nabor-hood”.
Saquon Barkley best bet: Under 11.5 Rushing TDs (+100 at bet365)
Saquon Barkley broke the goal line for 13 rushing touchdowns in his incredible inaugural season in Philly, getting a big push down the stretch. He had six rushing scores in the first nine games before racking up seven in his last seven outings.
Speaking of pushes, Jalen Hurts is always going to vulture goal-line carries with the “Brotherly Shove” — at least until the league bans it — and new RB addition A.J. “Quadzilla” Dillion is a red-zone specialist.
Season-long projections sit shy of 12 rushing touchdowns from Barkley, with most models hovering around 10. We could see the Philadelphia Eagles protect Saquon down the stretch and save some gas for the playoffs.
Jayden Daniels best bet: Over 22.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150 at bet365)
This touchdown total is too low. Even with the defensive opposition getting cranked up, Jayden Daniels will easily blow this prop total out of the water.
He connected for 25 touchdowns in his RoY campaign. Daniels only had six scores in his first seven games as a pro before settling in for 19 TDs throws in the final 10 outings, including an abbreviated Week 18 appearance.
Player projections range from 27 to 29 touchdown passes, which makes laying the -150 price tag worth it.
NFC South
Bijan Robinson best bet: Over 1,199.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Bijan Robinson rumbled for more than 1,400 rushing yards in his sophomore campaign in an offense that handed off less than 46% of the time.
With Penix Jr. getting his feet wet, I expect Zac Robinson to lean into his star rusher early in the year. Plenty of tight look-ahead spreads project Atlanta in close games, which means the Falcons aren’t playing from behind and can utilize their best weapon.
Season-long forecasts all have Robinson above this rushing yard total, with projections ranging from just shy of 1,400 to more than 1,500 gains on the ground. And when you plug in his production as a receiver, Bijan is a +1600 live flyer to win Offensive Player of the Year.
Bryce Young best bet: Over 3,224.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
It seems the 2025 projections are buying into Young’s second-half surge, forecasting the Carolina QB to pass for 3,400 yards or more.
The Panthers did pump life into the receiving corps, and with a dreadful defense and plenty of big spreads, the offense will be playing from behind. That means plenty of dropbacks for Young.
As mentioned, the Panthers’ schedule isn’t very prickly in terms of opposing defenses. Several upcoming foes ranked in the back half of success rate per dropback allowed, including four games against New Orleans and Atlanta.
Alvin Kamara best bet: Over 4.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-115 at bet365)
Alvin Kamara is 30 years old, which is often the age running backs see their production fall off a cliff.
The dual-threat weapon made it through 14 games before missing the final three outings due to injury in 2024, amassing almost 1,500 yards of offense along with eight touchdowns – six coming on the ground.
The offense will lean on Kamara heavily while the QBs get their feet wet and this offensive line will help plow the road. Moore’s teams have success in the red zone and season-long projections for Kamara call for 4.5 to six scores on the ground from the veteran rusher.
Baker Mayfield best bet: Over 3,800.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
If the defense can’t contain rival passing games, the Bucs will find themselves in shootouts each Sunday.
Baker Mayfield has proven his worth as a passer, and this receiving corps is absolutely loaded, especially when Godwin and McMillan return to the mix. This is a big strike passing playbook, putting up 58 completions of 20 or more yards in 2024.
The Bucs' gunslinger went for 4,000-plus the past two seasons, and 2025 projections clear that bar, with forecasts hovering around 4,200 — give or take a possible Week 18 rest spot. Mayfield is also the fourth overall favorite to lead the NFL in passing yards, which would put him over 4,000 yards based on past seasons.
NFC West
Kyler Murray best bet: Over 3375.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
This 2025 prop total sits just shy of last year’s Over/Under of 3,400.5 passing yards – a mark Murray topped with more than 3,800 yards through the air.
With a better offensive line, growing repour with Harrison Jr., and a list of shitty secondaries lined up, I’m banking on Kyler to have a huge year under center. Add to that all but four games being played on fast indoor tracks.
Injuries have prevented him from passing for 4,000 yards in his career, but 2025 season-long models are flirting with that bar. Obviously, Murray doesn’t have to do so to blow away this low total.
Puka Nacua best bet: Over 5.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-140 at bet365)
An injury in Week 1 made it tough for Nacua to build on his sensational rookie season. He caught only three touchdowns after scoring six in 2023.
In 2025, he’s no longer sharing red-zone targets with Cooper Kupp and is undoubtedly Stafford’s first option. The Rams’ schedule features more than a few sad-ass secondaries for Puka to exploit.
Season-long models aren’t bullish on Nacua’s touchdown output, with models sitting between six and seven scores. As long as Stafford is standing, he’s a threat to find the end zone.
Brock Purdy best bet: Over 3850.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Game managers don’t make $265 million, and Purdy is going to have to prove that in 2025.
Since starting his remarkable story in the NFL, Purdy rates among the elite QBs in many advanced passing stats, including No. 1 in EPA + CPOE and success rate per dropback since 2022.
He finished with 3,864 passing yards in 2024 despite missing a ton of weapons and missing two games. Purdy still has options in CMC, Aiyuk, and Kittle, and he faces a schedule littered with dog-sneeze defenses.
Season-long models all come in way above this passing yard prop, with projections ranging from 4,300 to 4,500-plus.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba best bet: Over 925.5 Receiving Yards (-155 at bet365)
The Seahawks aren’t going to pass as much as they did last season. However, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is no longer sharing catches with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
He’s now the true No. 1 WR in this offense and will see the bulk of the targets when Darnold drops back. He’s been pegged for a step back by many fantasy touts but even a decline would get him Over this disrespectful prop total.
Smith-Njigba finished with 1,130 receiving yards in 2024 and season-long projections all sit at 1,100-plus in 2025.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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