The Washington Commanders’ success was one of the biggest shockers of last season.
Washington gets to prove that run to the NFC title game wasn’t a fluke in Week 1 of the 2025 campaign against an improved New York Giants squad at home, and there has been interesting line movement for this game since odds on the opener released way back in the spring.
Here are my early Giants vs. Commanders predictions and NFL picks for this September 7 matchup.
Giants vs Commanders predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Giants vs Commanders spread pick: N.Y. Giants +6.5 (-118)
Week 1 odds are different from any other week of the NFL season. These lines are released when the schedule is announced in the spring and take effect for four months before we reach gameday.
Most often, the spread moves toward the favorite, but this opener of Washington Commanders -7.5 is down as low as -5.5 at some outlier books, with available -6 and -6.5s out there. Money has moved this toward the New York Giants — and for good reason.
New York may not have a clear-cut No. 1 option at QB, but at least it’s better than last year’s situation. Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston are upgrades, especially when it comes to downfield threats.
The G-Men were punchless beyond the sticks last year and will be more dangerous in 2025.
The Giants' defense also improved, most notably up front. New York is loaded with pass rushers, and that will be enough to move Jayden Daniels around, rush the Commanders, and perhaps cause some much-needed turnovers.
I'm leaning toward the G-Men to stay within +6.5.
Early Giants vs Commanders total pick: Under 45.5 (-108)
This Over/Under hasn’t moved as much as the spread, with a slight half-point climb to 45.5 points. If the Giants are going to cover, it won’t be in a shootout with Washington.
The G-Men need that pass rush to hurry Daniels and make him throw into shorter options while not allowing deep plays to develop.
The second-year QB experienced a notable decline in production when pressured and also struggled more against man coverage in 2024. Shane Bowen’s defense played man at the 11th-highest rate last season.
Washington’s defense wasn’t great in Year 1 under head coach Dan Quinn, but he always gets the most from his roster. The Giants' offensive line is soft and could be even softer if All-Pro tackle Andrew Thomas isn’t ready to roll.
Offensive coordinator Mike Kafka returns to calling plays after being demoted by head coach Brian Daboll. New York ran the ball at a higher rate under Kafka in 2022, before shifting to a pass-heavy approach with Daball.
We could see more ground-and-pound from the Giants as they go after the Commanders' weak run stop unit (27th in EPA allowed per handoff in 2024). That would also slow down the pace and keep the ball away from Washington’s up-tempo attack.
Giants vs Commanders odds
- Giants vs. Commanders spread: Commanders -6.5
- Giants vs. Commanders moneyline: Giants +215, Commanders -260
- Giants vs. Commanders Over/Under: 45.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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