The Detroit Lions are coming off a 15-win year, but the 2025 season begins with a brutal matchup in Week 1 as they head to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers.
Oddsmakers are expecting regression from Detroit, but my Lions vs. Packers predictions believe the defending NFC North champs are being undervalued in Week 1.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this division battle on Sunday, September 7.
Lions vs Packers predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Lions vs Packers spread pick: Lions +2.5 (-110)
The Detroit Lions lost some of their 2024 shine following the departures of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn.
That said, oddsmakers might be underestimating a squad that went 15-2 last year and returns most of the personnel on both sides of the ball.
Sure, the retirement of Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow will be felt, but the defense will be better with a healthy Aidan Hutchinson back in the fold. The superstar end was the favorite to win the DPOY Award last year before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 6.
The Green Bay Packers have a strong offense led by quarterback Jordan Love, but they don't have the high-caliber receiving weapons that the Lions do. Green Bay's defense should regress after coming up with splashy plays last year, while struggling to defend the pass on a down-to-down basis.
Trading for Micah Parsons last Thursday has given Green Bay fans plenty of optimism, but they might need to temper expectations for Week 1. Parsons is dealing with a joint sprain in his back, and even if he suits up, he likely won't be 100% and has to adjust to a new system.
Early Lions vs Packers total pick: Over 47.5 (-105)
Green Bay finished last season fourth in the league in defensive EPA, largely due to ranking fourth in the league in takeaways, but opponent turnovers is a volatile category from year to year.
The Packers were 21st in defensive success rate and just 28th in defensive dropback success rate, which is far more indicative of sustainable production.
I have serious questions about Green Bay's young corners, especially with offseason addition Nate Hobbs looking unlikely to play in Week 1. That's bad news against an explosive Lions offense that features Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Jahmyr Gibbs.
On the other side of the ball, Detroit is also vulnerable on defense, and Love can move the ball even without a big-name wideout at his disposal.
Three of the last four games between these NFC North rivals have seen more than 50 points hung on the board. The contest that went Under was in extreme rain and wind last November, while this Week 1 clash will take place in optimal conditions.
Lions vs Packers odds
- Lions vs. Packers spread: Packers -2.5
- Lions vs. Packers moneyline: Lions +120, Packers -142
- Lions vs. Packers Over/Under: 47.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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