Ahead of its biggest game of the college football season, No. 1 Miami announced that star wide receiver Malachi Toney is out against Notre Dame.
The Hurricanes and Fighting Irish clash tonight at Notre Dame Stadium at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC) in a matchup with massive College Football Playoff ramifications. The news that Toney is out moved Notre Dame from a 5.5-point home favorite to a 7.5-point favorite.
But the loss of their star won't just impact Miami's Week 10 game, so when will Malachi Toney return?
Malachi Toney injury status
On Wednesday, Nov. 4, as Miami prepared for its pivotal matchup with Notre Dame, news broke that All-American Malachi Toney was injured in practice. After hours of speculation, Miami officials confirmed that Toney suffered a high ankle sprain.
Initial reports indicated that the star might be able to suit up against the Hurricanes' old rival, but later that day it was confirmed that Toney will have surgery in hopes of returning for the College Football Playoff.
Toney is currently top five nationally in receptions (73), receiving yards (1,027), receiving touchdowns (13), receptions that have gone for a first down or touchdown (49), yards per route run (4.30), and YAC (497). Darian Mensah has a nearly perfect NFL QB rating when targeting Toney (157.8).
This is a substantial loss for Miami, especially ahead of the No. 1 must-watch game in our Week 10 Top 25 predictions, but the Hurricanes still have a clear path to the CFP.
Given the reporting around the injury and the focus on a return for the College Football Playoff, it's unlikely we will see Toney again before the playoff.
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Malachi Toney production vs Top 25
| Date | Opponent | Production | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 31, 2025 |
 |
6 receptions, 82 receiving yards, 1 TD | Win Miami 27, Notre Dame 24 |
| Sept. 13, 2025 |
 |
6 receptions, 66 receiving yards | Win Miami 49, South Florida 12 |
| Oct. 4, 2025 |  |
7 receptions, 107 receiving yards, 2 TDs | Win Miami 28, Florida State 22 |
| Nov. 29, 2025 |
 |
13 receptions, 126 receiving yards, 1 TD, 5 carries, 30 rushing yards | Win Miami 38, Pitt 7 |
| Dec. 20, 2025 |
 |
5 receptions, 22 receiving yards, 1 TD, 3 carries, 9 rushing yards, 82 punt return yards | Win Miami 10, Texas A&M 3 |
| Dec. 31, 2025 |
 |
5 receptions, 16 receiving yards, 1 carry, 4 yards | Win Miami 24, Ohio State 14 |
| Jan. 8, 2026 |
 |
5 receptions, 81 receiving yards, 1 TD, 2 carries, 11 rushing yards | Win Miami 31, Ole Miss 27 |
| Jan. 19, 2026 |
 |
10 receptions, 122 receiving yards, 1 TD | Loss Indiana 27, Miami 21 |
Miami season outlook
There's no official timeline for Toney's return, but high ankle sprains typically require at least four weeks to recover. That means Toney is likely to miss Miami's final four regular-season games (at Notre Dame, vs. Duke, vs. Virginia Tech, vs. Boston College).
The Hurricanes are undefeated in ACC play and, even without Toney, Miami will likely be a double-digit favorite in its three remaining conference games. The ACC Championship is slated for Saturday, Dec. 5, and the first round of the College Football Playoff begins Friday, Dec. 18.
If Miami is 11-1 and loses the ACC Championship, the CFP committee will have a hard time leaving the Hurricanes out, given the state of several high-profile top-ranked programs right now.
If the Hurricanes weather the storm and still win the ACC Championship, they will likely earn a first-round bye, and Toney will have even more time to return to the field. The CFP quarterfinals don't begin until Wednesday, Dec. 30.
How Toney's absence moves the odds
Miami was a 5.5-point underdog on the road against Notre Dame before Toney's injury, and with the star out, the line moved two points.
The Hurricanes are now 7.5-point underdogs, but as our Brad Powers points out, in its last 41 games, Miami has not lost by more than seven points. Like Powers, I'm also on the Hurricanes to cover as 7.5-point underdogs in my Miami vs. Notre Dame prediction.
The Heisman Trophy odds might be the most interesting market impacted by Toney's injury. He wasn't the favorite to win the award, but his quarterback, Mensah, was before the news.
Mensah had a 37% probability on Kalshi of winning the Heisman before Toney's injury, and that probability has since dropped to 28%. Toney's probability dropped from 21% to 1%.
As a result, Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith is once again the Heisman favorite. He had a 26% probability before Toney's injury and now sits at 38%.
With Toney expected to be back for the College Football Playoff, Miami's national championship odds didn't fall much, moving from 15% to 10%.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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