Tuesday’s New Orleans Bowl between Western Kentucky and Southern Miss gives us a unique situation in today’s college football landscape.
Nearly every player on both teams has remained active for the bowl game, meaning we should get a matchup of two hungry sides. But the Golden Eagles will be without head coach Charles Huff, who has taken the Memphis job after just one season in charge.
Find out who I’m backing in my Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss predictions and free college football picks for Tuesday, December 23.
Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss predictions for the New Orleans Bowl
Who will win the New Orleans Bowl?
Western Kentucky will get the win. The Hilltoppers are the more consistent team, especially when it comes to turning drives into points, and their defense is underrated.
Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss best bet: Western Kentucky -2.5 (-110)
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will be without running back La’Vell Wright, who was second on the team in rushing yards and led them with 10 touchdowns. But for an offense that threw the ball at the 17th-highest rate in college football, it might not matter.
The rest of the offense will play in the bowl game, and the Hilltoppers have the luxury of having both Maverick McIvor and Rodney Tisdale available at quarterback. Tisdale took over for the final five games after McIvor suffered a shoulder injury in October.
That means they’ll have options for an offense that ranked 23rd in third-down conversion rate, 32nd in points per quality drive, and 29th in completion rate. The Southern Miss Golden Eagles defense ranked 115th in getting third-down stops, 111th in points per quality drive, and 85th in EPA/dropback.
While the Golden Eagles also kept most of their roster intact, this is an offense that ranks 110th in dropback success rate and just 59th in points per quality drive. The latter is an area where the Hilltoppers thrive, having allowed the fourth-fewest points per quality drive at just 2.20 on the year.
The Hilltoppers do a great job of keeping drives alive on third down and getting third-down stops. For Southern Miss, penalties have been a huge problem all season long.
Add in the huge difference in turning quality drives into actual points, and I’ll happily lay less than a field goal for the better team that has gone 9-3 against the spread in its last 12 games.
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Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss same-game parlay
The team totals for this game have Southern Miss at 28.5 points, which is far too high. That said, I don’t think Western will score enough to push the total Over on its own.
Add in the fact that Western has gone Under in six of its last eight games, and Southern Miss has seen the Under hit in three of four, and you have a perfect spot to fade the total.
Southern Miss didn’t score a single first-quarter point in any of its final three games of the season. Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers led after one period in each of its final three, including a 3-0 lead at LSU.
I expect Western to come out with a strong opening drive that leads to points, while the Golden Eagles once again struggle to find scoring success in the first 15 minutes.
Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss SGP
- Western Kentucky -2.5
- Under 57.5
- Western Kentucky 1Q -1.5
Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss odds
- Spread: Western Kentucky -2.5 (-110) | Southern Miss +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Western Kentucky -134 | Southern Miss +114
- Over/Under: Over 58.5 (-110) | Under 58.5 (-110)
Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss trend to know
Western Kentucky have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss.
How to watch Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss
| Location | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date | Tuesday, December 23, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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