It’s a matchup firmly in the spotlight with all eyes on the Pac-12 Saturday night, when the undefeated and fifth-ranked Washington Huskies battle the No. 20 USC Trojans as slight college football odds favorites.
While the Huskies are still jockeying for a spot in the College Football Playoff, there’s also a spectacular game-inside-a-game showdown.
The matchup between the current Heisman odds favorite Michael Penix Jr, and perhaps the top pick in the 2024 NFL draft, Trojans pivot Caleb Williams, promises to be popcorn material.
Not surprisingly, these two will play prominent roles when getting into our Washington vs. USC free college football picks for November 4.
Washington vs USC best odds
Washington vs USC picks and predictions
You have to go back to 2016 to find a Pac-12 team in the CFP, when the Huskies did it.
They’re in the mix this year, though, just outside the recently revealed Top 4 of Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, and Florida State. Like the Huskies, they’re all undefeated at 8-0.
It’s a fair ranking, considering the ‘Dawgs have been cutting things a little tight the last four weeks. They’ve won all by single digits, with only one ranked team — eighth-ranked Oregon — in that stretch.
That perfect mark is now going up against the meaty part of the schedule, with USC, 18th-ranked Utah and 16th-ranked Oregon State the next three weeks.
Offense is their strength: Washington is one of nine teams in the nation scoring better than 40 points per game (USC is also on that list). Their major damage is done in the passing game, where they’re churning out an NCAA-best 399 yards per contest.
Michael Penix Jr is the engine driving the Huskies bus, and he’s been devastating. Last week, he led Washington to a 42-33 win over the Stanford Cardinal, going 21-for-37 for 368 yards, with four TD tosses and one interception.
Coming off a nerve-wracking 15-7 win over Arizona State, where he threw for a season-low 275 yards and two interceptions, Penix Jr bounced back with his seventh 300+ yard passing effort in eight games.
While we expect Penix Jr and Caleb Williams to go back-and-forth — Williams is tied for top spot in the nation with 26 TD passes, one ahead of Penix Jr — USC brings a subpar defense to the table.
The Trojans are giving up 32.6 points per game, which is the fourth-worst mark in the Pac-12. While they’re middle of the pack in passing yards surrendered at 248.8 yards, they’re getting gashed on the ground. Opponents are churning out 172.1 yards per contest, which ranks 104th in the NCAA.
There are just too many ways for the Huskies to move the ball against USC, and UW’S defense, which allows just 20.6 points per game, should find enough stops to cover the spread.
My best bet: Washington -2.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Washington vs USC same-game parlay
Washington -2.5
Penix Jr. Under 383.5 pass yards
Dillon Johnson Over 85.5 rush yards
Ja'Lynn Polk Over 93.5 receiving yards
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Our single-game parlay continues with Penix Jr. While he has been dynamite for the Huskies, oddsmakers have produced an eye-popping 383.5 passing yards line.
The lefty has crossed this mark three times on the year, but those were the first three weeks of the season.
Since then, the top total for Penix Jr was last week’s 369 against the Cardinal. As bad as USC’s defense has been, no one has even reached 375 yards passing, the closest being Colorado’s Shadeur Sanders’ 371 in a game USC won 48-41.
Penix Jr should be even more effective with some balance, which could be provided by running back Dillon Johnson.
He’s led the team in rushing in five of the last six games, passing his projected 85.5 rush total twice and missing it by two yards another game. It’s not Washington’s bread and butter, but the Trojans’ weak front seven is begging to be run on.
And we can’t throw out a parlay without targeting one of Penix Jr’s top pass-catchers. Ja’Lynn Polk is coming off a season-high 148 yards receiving and two scores against Stanford.
He’s also cracked 100+ receiving yards in three straight and six times in their eight games. Look for him to cruise past this number Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Washington vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis
It’s always interesting to see the preseason betting on this matchup and where we are present. On Aug 23, DraftKings had the Trojans as 6-point favorites. October 6 was the last time Washington was pegged as an underdog.
Since then, we’ve seen them as high as 5-point favorites, but this has been a window-shopping wager in the leadup, as you can find the line anywhere to your liking. It’s settled mostly at Huskies -3, but you could find it even shorter at -2.5 (where we did at FanDuel).
Beyond Penix Jr’s passing yards total, the Over/Under is bonkers. The majority of books are settling in at 77.0, but you can find them still find action up to a full point more. While both teams are averaging better than 40 points per, that’s a figure I don’t want any part of.
Washington vs USC betting trend to know
Washington has won 10 straight against the Trojans, but has just a 5-4-1 mark against the spread. USC is just 2-7-0 ATS this season. Find more college football betting trends for Washington vs USC.
Washington vs USC game info
| Location: | Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, November 4, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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